房地产真的还有前景吗？︱刘德科楼市讲义
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/3C8AuYOnFbDx3M4FCbRSzRlBXwXicXbMwO9ZJ8SR4olq0FFdjFpsbEEzObKCZmwOc8AYLhfqaiasR6tYAwVgs7uQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">文︱刘德科</span></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>大概用了一年半时间，<span style="color: black;">已然</span>做了 155 讲《刘德科楼市讲义》，似乎<span style="color: black;">已然</span>覆盖了你关心的大部分问题。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>在录制的时候，<span style="color: black;">一般</span>是想到什么<span style="color: black;">专题</span>就录什么，并<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">根据</span>严格的篇章<span style="color: black;">次序</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">近期</span>，越来越多的人<span style="color: black;">起始</span>生疑：房地产真的还有前景吗？<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>从 155 讲中挑拣出跟这个问题<span style="color: black;">关联</span>的那几讲，按<span style="color: black;">规律</span><span style="color: black;">次序</span>编排，重新确认一下<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>跟房地产之间的眼神。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第21讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">房价的三大基石制度</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">在房地产的三大基石制度<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">创立</span>之前，房价的上涨<span style="color: black;">规律</span>是变不了的。哪三大基石制度？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span>个基石制度是<span style="color: black;">保证</span>房体系。真正有<span style="color: black;">功效</span>的<span style="color: black;">保证</span>房体系，是以租赁为主的，并且能做到租购同权。<span style="color: black;">此刻</span>国家正在<span style="color: black;">奋斗</span>朝这个方向去，但路途还遥远。</span><span style="color: black;">第二个基石制度是国家住房银行。<span style="color: black;">此刻</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>有个非常失败的制度，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>公积金制度。公积金制度迟早要深度改革，<span style="color: black;">将来</span>的方向<span style="color: black;">便是</span>国家住房银行，它是普惠性的，而不像公积金只能让<span style="color: black;">少许</span>人受益。</span><span style="color: black;">第三个基石制度<span style="color: black;">便是</span>房地产税。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>房地产税开征，它是完全归<span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府所有，<span style="color: black;">这般</span><span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府就<span style="color: black;">不消</span>卖<span style="color: black;">那样</span>多地了，土地财政的依赖度就会减轻。</span><span style="color: black;">这三大基石制度的道路都还漫长。在它们没建完之前，房价<span style="color: black;">规律</span>是变不了的。</span><span style="color: black;">当前有一种判断很流行：房地产市场的底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span><span style="color: black;">出现</span>了变化。理由<span style="color: black;">重点</span>是：中国人均住房面积和城镇化率都<span style="color: black;">已然</span>不低了，房地产调控政策<span style="color: black;">更加是</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>严厉到直接限制了地价与房价。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第60讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中国房地产到底处在什么<span style="color: black;">周期</span>？</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>人都听说过这两条<span style="color: black;">所说</span>的国际流通的「警戒线」：城市化率超过 70%，人均住房面积超过 40㎡，房地产就到头了。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>先来看城市化率：2020 年，中国的常住人口城镇化率是 63.89%，<span style="color: black;">已然</span>很接近<span style="color: black;">所说</span>的「70% 警戒线」；但中国的户籍人口城镇化率仅仅<span style="color: black;">仅有</span> 45.4%，即便按每年 1 个百分点向前推进，要达到 70%，仍然<span style="color: black;">必须</span><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>年。<span style="color: black;">为何</span>要更看重户籍人口？在中国，有了户籍<span style="color: black;">才可</span>使人真正扎根在城市里，<span style="color: black;">才可</span>更公平地享受到教育医疗资源。</span><span style="color: black;">再来看人均住房面积：2019 年中国城镇居民人均住房面积是 39.8㎡，<span style="color: black;">已然</span>很接近<span style="color: black;">所说</span>的「40㎡ 警戒线」；但中国的人均标准商品住房面积大约<span style="color: black;">仅有</span> 15㎡，离 40㎡ 还远着呢——<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>定义的「标准商品住房」，<span style="color: black;">指的是</span>有围墙、有物业服务、有地<span style="color: black;">落车</span>库的住宅小区。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">经过</span>这两组数据，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>感受一下：中国房地产仍然有极其广阔的市场空间。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第108讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">城镇化建设高峰期并未结束</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>人感慨：中国的城镇化建设高峰期<span style="color: black;">已然</span>结束了。真的结束了吗？远远还<span style="color: black;">无</span>结束。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>从「国际比较」「国家规模」「发展<span style="color: black;">周期</span>」与「时代特征」这四个维度来观察。</span><span style="color: black;">●国际比较：与英美日的差距仍然<span style="color: black;">很强</span></span><span style="color: black;">美国城市化率约 82%，英国约 87%，日本约 93%。即便以常住人口计，<span style="color: black;">日前</span>中国的城镇化率<span style="color: black;">亦</span>就 63.89%（七普数据）；<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>以户籍人口计，<span style="color: black;">那样</span>仅仅<span style="color: black;">仅有</span> 45.4%（2020 年底公安部数据），与英美日的差距仍然<span style="color: black;">很强</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">中国终将达到英美日的水准。中国的城镇化建设仍然空间广阔。</span><span style="color: black;">●国家规模：超<span style="color: black;">成人</span>口规模国家的客观规律</span><span style="color: black;">中国是美国与日本<span style="color: black;">没</span>法比拟的超<span style="color: black;">成人</span>口规模国家。中国的超<span style="color: black;">成人</span>口规模在客观上，会催生出更大规模的城市。举两个<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>容易有切身感受的例子。</span><span style="color: black;">先说县城。我国的不少县城，人口跟佛罗伦萨（不到 40 万）或法兰克福（75 万<span style="color: black;">上下</span>）差不多，市区面积<span style="color: black;">亦</span>不输于佛罗伦萨或法兰克福。这不是说<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>的县城有多厉害，这是<span style="color: black;">由于</span>中国是超<span style="color: black;">成人</span>口规模国家，欧洲不是。</span><span style="color: black;">再说上海。上海<span style="color: black;">已然</span>是中国<span style="color: black;">第1</span>大城市，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>仍然还要建「五大新城」。2017 年，上海正式确定了「五大新城」；后来的上海「十四五」规划，更把「五大新城」<span style="color: black;">说到</span>了新高度。「五大新城」总面积大约 820 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>，建成之后大约相当于<span style="color: black;">此刻</span>的杭州或西安（以建成区计）。上海<span style="color: black;">已然</span>很<span style="color: black;">奋斗</span>地在刻意<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>城市规模，但<span style="color: black;">最后</span>还是得符合中国这个超<span style="color: black;">成人</span>口规模国家的基本规律。</span><span style="color: black;">中国不是<span style="color: black;">仅有</span>北上广深就够了。中国还<span style="color: black;">必须</span><span style="color: black;">更加多</span>的北上广深。在北上广深中，深圳的建成区面积是最小的，大约 1217 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>以 1200 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>来<span style="color: black;">做为</span>参照标准，仅有重庆和武汉超过了，成都（1032 平方公里）正在接近，南京、杭州、西安、济南、郑州、合肥、长沙等等省会城市仍然差距巨大。杭州市区的行政区划面积超过 8000 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>，<span style="color: black;">日前</span>的建成区面积大约 706 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>（2020 年）。</span><span style="color: black;">中国经济发达的省会城市或副省级城市，必然会向「建成区 1200 平方<span style="color: black;">千米</span>」的方向推进。<span style="color: black;">此刻</span>才推进到一半多<span style="color: black;">有些</span>，怎么就说城镇化建设高峰期<span style="color: black;">已然</span>结束了？</span><span style="color: black;">●发展<span style="color: black;">周期</span>：都市圈将<span style="color: black;">诱发</span>城镇化新高峰</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>国家正在推进都市圈建设。其实，都市圈建设只能算是<span style="color: black;">刚才</span><span style="color: black;">起始</span>，<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>以东京都市圈为参照，<span style="color: black;">那样</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>的<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>都市圈离基本成型都还很远。</span><span style="color: black;">当前的城镇化还<span style="color: black;">处在</span><span style="color: black;">这般</span>的<span style="color: black;">周期</span>：城市本身的建成区还在扩张高峰期，都市圈建设才<span style="color: black;">刚才</span>揭开帷幕，<span style="color: black;">此刻</span>还是酝酿期，恐怕十年之后才会迎来都市圈建设的高峰期。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>去看一下成渝双城经济圈：成都在朝着重庆的方向建设「西部科学城」, 重庆在朝着成都的方向建设「西部科学城」，这一切才<span style="color: black;">刚才</span>拉开序幕。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>去看一下长三角一体化：「长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区」（上海市青浦区、江苏省吴江区和浙江省嘉善县）虽然<span style="color: black;">发展</span>神速，但只能算是<span style="color: black;">刚才</span>拉开序幕。</span><span style="color: black;">●时代特征：TOD 与数字经济为城镇化赋能</span><span style="color: black;">当前中国的城镇化，面临着两大机遇：TOD 与数字经济。这两样新事物既<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了城镇化的效率，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>改变了城镇化的传统形态。</span><span style="color: black;">TOD（公共交通导向<span style="color: black;">研发</span>模式）能把<span style="color: black;">轻轨</span>或高铁等轨道交通，变成一个城市活力节点点。TOD 思维下的轨道大爆发，既<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了城市本身的效率，又<span style="color: black;">极重</span>地<span style="color: black;">加强</span>了都市圈的可能性。<span style="color: black;">因此</span><span style="color: black;">此刻</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>国家在倡导「轨道上的城市」与「轨道上的都市圈」。</span><span style="color: black;">数字经济跟过去的工厂不<span style="color: black;">同样</span>，它<span style="color: black;">能够</span>直接镶嵌在城市浓度很高的老城区，<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>生长在环境优美的新区。数字经济<span style="color: black;">极重</span>地<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了「三生融合」（生产+生活+生态）的可能性。<span style="color: black;">因此</span>，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">此刻</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>看到<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>城市都在热火朝天地建设科学城或科技城。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">倘若</span>你从以上这四个维度去看，你就<span style="color: black;">晓得</span>：<span style="color: black;">哪些</span>说城镇化建设高峰期<span style="color: black;">已然</span>结束的人，是不懂中国基本面。当然，你<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>用最直接的肉眼观察来判断：你所在的城市（<span style="color: black;">没</span>论<span style="color: black;">体积</span>），工地多不多，<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>工地<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>，就说明<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>仍然<span style="color: black;">处在</span>城镇化建设高峰期。</span><span style="color: black;">等到工地越来越少，像东京或伦敦那样<span style="color: black;">稀疏</span>，<span style="color: black;">才可</span>说<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>国家的城镇化建设高峰期结束了。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第103讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">18万亿不是巅峰</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">2021 年全国商品房<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额约 18.2 万亿元，<span style="color: black;">营销</span>面积约 17.9 亿平米，双双创了历史新高。不少人的判断是，18 万亿是巅峰了，接下来就要<span style="color: black;">持续</span>往下走了。持有这种判断的，不仅有行外人士，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有万科这种的行业龙头。除万科之外，全国 TOP 10 房企中的大<span style="color: black;">都数</span>都不认同这种判断，只<span style="color: black;">不外</span><span style="color: black;">她们</span>不愿意公开说<span style="color: black;">罢了</span>。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>的<span style="color: black;">科研</span>判断是：18 万亿只是山腰数值<span style="color: black;">罢了</span>，巅峰大概会是 25 万亿到 30 万亿之间。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">最少</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>从这四个<span style="color: black;">方向</span>来判断——</span><span style="color: black;">●城镇化高峰期尚未结束：第七次人口普查数据<span style="color: black;">表示</span>，虽然中国常住人口城镇化率是 63.89%，但户籍人口城镇化率仅为 45.4%。中国的特殊之处在于：户籍绑定了教育、医疗等城市资源。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>要达到 70%，还<span style="color: black;">必须</span> 3.5 亿非城镇户籍人口转为城镇户口。</span><span style="color: black;">●高品质住房人均面积仍然短缺：虽然中国城镇居民人均住房面积已达到 39.8㎡（2019 年），但 2000 年以后建造的商品住房人均面积还不到 20㎡。在住建部的定义里，2000 年以前建造的住宅区属于老旧小区，<span style="color: black;">必须</span>改造<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>拆建。2021 年 11 月 25 日，刘鹤副总理在人民日报<span style="color: black;">发布</span>的《<span style="color: black;">必要</span>实现高质量发展》指出：「顺应居民高品质住房需求，更好<span style="color: black;">处理</span>居民住房问题，促进房地产行业<span style="color: black;">安稳</span>健康发展和良性循环。」</span><span style="color: black;">●平均单价仍然会上涨：房价是城市资源与货币放量的双重沉淀。你买的房子之<span style="color: black;">因此</span>值钱，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>是<span style="color: black;">由于</span>边上有<span style="color: black;">轻轨</span>、学校或购物中心等等城市资源；一个国家发了多少货币，有很大一部分<span style="color: black;">最后</span>会沉淀在不动产上。</span><span style="color: black;">●土地财政中短期内没法被取代：中国还有一项特殊之处，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>土地财政在<span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府的运行中起到了<span style="color: black;">重要</span><span style="color: black;">功效</span>，<span style="color: black;">短期</span>内<span style="color: black;">无</span>任何制度安排<span style="color: black;">能够</span>取代土地财政。简单说，<span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府<span style="color: black;">必须</span>靠卖地，来维持一座城市的柴米油盐，来谋求更好的发展。</span><span style="color: black;">总之，市场需求仍然巨大，单价仍然会上涨，制度改革不可能一蹴而就，<span style="color: black;">因此</span>全国商品房<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额不会止步于 18 万亿。<span style="color: black;">不可</span>一碰到楼市行情低谷，就陷入低谷<span style="color: black;">心情</span>，就失去对<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>趋势的判断力。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第58讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">房地产的底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">这些当然都对，但这些未必是底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span>。底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span>有<span style="color: black;">无</span>变，<span style="color: black;">重要</span>是看：房地产在中央与<span style="color: black;">地区</span>的财税分配体制中扮演了什么角色。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span><span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府<span style="color: black;">针对</span>土地出让金的依赖度仍然很高，<span style="color: black;">那样</span>房地产市场的底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span>就很难<span style="color: black;">出现</span>变化。</span><span style="color: black;">房地产是不是<span style="color: black;">百姓</span>经济的支柱产业不<span style="color: black;">要紧</span>，土地财政是不是<span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府的<span style="color: black;">重要</span><span style="color: black;">源自</span>才<span style="color: black;">要紧</span>。只要等到房地产税开征之后，真的降低了「土地财政」依赖度，<span style="color: black;">才可</span>说房地产的底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span><span style="color: black;">出现</span>变化了。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第2讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">房地产税</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">关于房地产税，讲五点。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span>，开征时间。要全面开征房地产税，<span style="color: black;">必要</span>走完这两步：全国人大完成立法，<span style="color: black;">少许</span>城市试点成功。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>能在十年之内走完这两步，<span style="color: black;">已然</span>算是<span style="color: black;">火速</span>了。</span><span style="color: black;">第二，开征<span style="color: black;">道理</span>。开征房地产税的<span style="color: black;">第1</span>目的不是为了打压房价，而是为了逐步取代「土地财政」，<span style="color: black;">最后</span>让<span style="color: black;">地区</span>政府<span style="color: black;">再也不</span>过度依赖「土地财政」。</span><span style="color: black;">第三，威慑<span style="color: black;">功效</span>。房地产税是达摩克里斯之剑：它的最大威力在于<span style="color: black;">无</span>开征之时，像一把<span style="color: black;">利刃</span>，悬在你头顶，你不<span style="color: black;">晓得</span>它什么时候会掉下来，对市场形成威慑。</span><span style="color: black;">第四，反<span style="color: black;">功效</span>。在城市化高峰期，开征房地产税，将助推房价而不是<span style="color: black;">控制</span>房价。<span style="color: black;">因此</span>，<span style="color: black;">没</span>法在<span style="color: black;">短期</span>内开征。</span><span style="color: black;">第五，最大<span style="color: black;">好处</span>：房地产税能彻底<span style="color: black;">处理</span>「70 年产权到期怎么办」问题。房地产税会让你的房子变成事实上的永久产权，只要你<span style="color: black;">始终</span>交房地产税。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">第119讲</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">枢纽行业</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">┃</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">大众</span>都<span style="color: black;">晓得</span>，房地产经常被戏<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>为「夜壶」，着急的时候用起来很舒畅，不<span style="color: black;">必须</span>的时候又嫌它臭。这个<span style="color: black;">不雅观</span>观的比喻，反而是对房地产的污名化。</span><span style="color: black;">同理，楼市行情<span style="color: black;">欠好</span>的时候，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>说房地产是<span style="color: black;">百姓</span>经济支柱产业，等楼市行情热火朝天时，基本上就不<span style="color: black;">准许</span>这么说了。<span style="color: black;">那样</span>，房地产到底是什么呢？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>更倾向于把房地产行业定义为枢纽行业，它头顶着财政收入，脚踩着金融业，左手是建筑业，右手是消费与制造业，钢筋水泥、家电家具，大几十个行业都跟房地产息息<span style="color: black;">关联</span>。枢纽的意思<span style="color: black;">便是</span>「事物相互联系的中心环节」，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">一般</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>把高铁站<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>为枢纽，房地产就像是一座超级巨大的高铁站，能让人与货<span style="color: black;">有效</span>率地流动起来。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">为何</span>房地产有这么多问题并且这么惹得讨厌？其中一个<span style="color: black;">要紧</span><span style="color: black;">原由</span>是<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">无</span>正视房地产。抬高房地产的<span style="color: black;">功效</span>，大可不必；贬低房地产，<span style="color: black;">一样</span>不可取。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>能不带<span style="color: black;">心情</span>地让房地产<span style="color: black;">作为</span>一个中性词，那就善莫大焉了。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3C8AuYOnFbAcmzHC444Oic850fkwc2EekDCYHZE9vLjAzEdb8fn8GlGFxHcAYXwWToKF1PJHibEJkurJYFXgFlfA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">《刘德科楼市讲义》目录</span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">01住房过剩 02房地产税 03限售 04人口净流出 05买车位</span></a> 06选楼层 07换物业<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">08洋房还是高层 09大城虹吸小城 10地段11租金<span style="color: black;">报答</span>率 12挑户型 13岛台 14<span style="color: black;">尽可能</span>房贷</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">15空置率 16等调控 17<span style="color: black;">轻轨</span>盘 18TOD 19架空层 20老家的房子</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">21房价的三大基石制度 22度假房 23海外买房 24<span style="color: black;">那些</span>楼盘绝对<span style="color: black;">不可</span>买</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">25买房优先级排</span></a>序 26养老房 27邻居与房价 28房<span style="color: black;">制品</span>是拼图 29包阳台 30房企品牌<span style="color: black;"> ︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">31买哪座城市 32网格化城市 33城市骨架 34撤市建区 35等拆迁</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">36<span style="color: black;">必定</span>会换房 37鸡头不如凤尾 38换房<span style="color: black;">重视</span>事项 39买装修房 40房屋质量问题</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;">41现房<span style="color: black;">营销</span> 42房价收入</a><a style="color: black;">比</a><a style="color: black;">43房价中位数 44地下室 45油</a>烟机困境<span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">︱</span>◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">46得房率 47套内面积计价 48采光权 49<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>最奢侈 50宅地占比低</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">51物业费<span style="color: black;">为么</span>贵 52买贵的 53老破小 54新区VS老城</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">55买房宜<span style="color: black;">公众</span> 56再谈养老房 57再聊架空层</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">58底层<span style="color: black;">规律</span> 59黄金时代 60楼市到底什么<span style="color: black;">周期</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">61城市平权 62下沉市场 63城市归零</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">64</span></a>样板房 65产权到期怎么办 66空置税 <span style="color: black;">︱<span style="color: black;">◎</span></span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">67公园不值钱 68<span style="color: black;">怎么样</span>的公园才值钱 69公园的形态变革</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">70花园城市的误解 71容积率 72低密<span style="color: black;">制品</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">73西晒 74更高的窗墙比 75顶楼漏水</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱</span><span style="color: black;">◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">76硅谷与硅巷 77科技城 78比例尺</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">79市中心空心化</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">80大学 81二手房<span style="color: black;">重视</span>事项 82大草坪</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">83大堂 84会所 85家居智能化</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">86缺地吗 87灰空间 88选房防洗脑</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">89学区房 90公积金 91换房黄金时间段</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">92公寓 93商铺 94写字楼</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">95租购同权 96共有产权房 97市政厅定律</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">98房贷利率走低</span><span style="color: black;">99人口净流出城市值得买 100城镇化的阶梯效应</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">101</span><span style="color: black;">经济适用房</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1</span></a>02用<span style="color: black;">伴侣</span>圈判断楼市 103<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额巅峰104沙县小吃<span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">105建设用地<span style="color: black;">不足</span> 106十八亿亩耕地107风景不值钱</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">108城镇化高峰期</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱<span style="color: black;">◎</span></span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">109零物业费</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">110林下空间 111地库高级感 112立方思维</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">113别墅114垂直绿化115最佳购房<span style="color: black;">机会</span></span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱</span><span style="color: black;">◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">116参与性景观117度假感118星巴克</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">11</span></a>9夜壶120国家住房银行121保租房<span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">122破壁时代123泳池124次贷<span style="color: black;">危险</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">125房<span style="color: black;">制品</span>迭代126黄金价值期127老破大</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;">128牛排理论129城市断裂带130烂房子卖给谁</a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">131调控的副<span style="color: black;">功效</span>132楼板隔音133一手房<span style="color: black;">中间商</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">134街区与底商的区别135外立面材质136央企</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱</span><span style="color: black;">◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">137大师作品</span></a>138人口负增长139人口红利<span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">140风雨连廊141公交TOD142嵌入式市政服务</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">143历史文脉144美学灯塔145圣殿空间</span></a> <span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">146高级烟火气147艺术有什么用148刚需仍然源源<span style="color: black;">持续</span></span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">149<span style="color: black;">大涨</span>150缓坡期151抄底</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">152专家◎153主卧小家化◎154一楼带花园</span></a><span style="color: black;">︱◎</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">155<span style="color: black;">制品</span>系</span></a></p><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: black;">德科地产频道</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">视频号</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">每日</span>一分钟 <span style="color: black;">即时</span>刷新中国房地产</span><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;">长按识别关注</span><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;">编辑︱卢丹婷 后期︱沈奕飞</span><span style="color: black;">视频编导︱费嘉 摄像<span style="color: black;">指点</span>︱王德正</span><span style="color: black;">策划︱王冬莺 主编︱何玲 流程︱周慧慧</span><span style="color: black;">总编辑︱刘德科 书法艺术︱陈志亨</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
你的见解独到，让我受益匪浅，期待更多交流。 你的留言真是温暖如春，让我感受到了无尽的支持与鼓励。 期待与你深入交流，共探知识的无穷魅力。 同意、说得对、没错、我也是这么想的等。
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