论坛 › 宁夏 › 【中泰通信 | 深度】中兴通讯：5G新起点，网络创新凸显主设备很久价值

wloe2gf 发表于 2024-8-31 05:21:29

【中泰通信 | 深度】中兴通讯：5G新起点，网络创新凸显主设备很久价值

    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">本文系中泰通信吴友文团队原创</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">全文共 11000余字，阅读时长约 7 分钟</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">注明<span style="color: black;">源自</span>，欢迎转载</p><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">中兴通讯（<span style="color: black;">000063.SZ</span>）：</strong><strong style="color: blue;">5G新起点，网络创新凸显主设备<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>价值</strong></span>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">投 资 要 点</strong></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6M9FXqoERdw5PdGBgkicGAxqXGliasAgccrbUL9nXRibU5brk2QJdubhgibw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"> <strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">大国科技竞争聚焦</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">外边</span>压力将<span style="color: black;">促进</span>国内网络建设加速加码，有望复制</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">节奏，资本开支快速向上，在三五年内建成<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>规模最大、技术最优、体验最佳的</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络。<span style="color: black;">做为</span><span style="color: black;">全世界</span>领先的主设备龙头，中兴势必担荷重任，并藉此撬动上游核心进一步突破，打开固网与政企业务的新局面。</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络创新起点，中兴蓄势待发</span></strong>。</strong></span></strong>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span>核心业务恢复常态，势头全面向好</span></strong>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">去年虽然经历<span style="color: black;">曲折</span>，但随着合规制度建设的完善与实施，中兴已充分切割掉历史包袱，核心业务<span style="color: black;">快速</span>步入正轨。去年</span><span style="color: black;">Q3</span><span style="color: black;">起，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>营业规模恢复<span style="color: black;">状况</span>超出预期，</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年底，运营商和政企业务规模已基本恢复到往年正常水平，</span><span style="color: black;">2019Q1</span><span style="color: black;">营业利润<span style="color: black;">起始</span><span style="color: black;">明显</span>增长。消费者业务收缩，对盈利的拖累<span style="color: black;">极重</span>减少，重构聚焦战略将由此加快落实，综合毛利率<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>到历年最高，整体势头全面向好。其中国内市场规模保持稳定是对冲<span style="color: black;">外边</span>事件影响的重要<span style="color: black;">基本</span>，各项业务的国内市场在全盘中比重<span style="color: black;">明显</span>加大，将为<span style="color: black;">机构</span>全面向好<span style="color: black;">供给</span>确定性<span style="color: black;">保证</span></span><span style="color: black;">。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">开局之年，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>将受益于</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建设拉动下的整网升级和竞争格局优化</span></strong>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">前五年有望复制</span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;">快速拉升的建设节奏，在总规模和投资周期上均有望创出新高。中性预期，<span style="color: black;">第1</span><span style="color: black;">周期</span>国内移动接入网投资规模较</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">周期</span>有望超出</span><span style="color: black;">20%</span><span style="color: black;">，总基站数达到<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>的</span><span style="color: black;">6</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">7</span><span style="color: black;">成，在自主可控基调下，本土厂商份额有望优化，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>竞争力进一步<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">做为</span>行业龙头，将<span style="color: black;">这里</span>轮开支向上周期中直接受益。</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">带来的业务压力<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将传导到固网的扩容升级中，传输网与</span><span style="color: black;">IP</span><span style="color: black;">承载网建设有望紧随其后，总规模<span style="color: black;">提高</span>叠加<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>份额优化，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>在固网<span style="color: black;">行业</span>将在业务和竞争力上双双达到新高。</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">引入的深度覆盖、高频谱发掘和网络软件化改造，将使得投资周期空前拉长，网络存量规模将<span style="color: black;">提高</span>后期软服务价值，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>将<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>受益于</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">带来的整网升级和竞争地位<span style="color: black;">提高</span></span>。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">驱动管道创新向平台化发展，主设备商具备核心价值。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">愿景<span style="color: black;">知道</span>为实现万物互联，物联场景极具差异性，需要网络具备开放化能力供各类</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端客户编排调配。从这个<span style="color: black;">方向</span>看，</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">整网走向开放平台化将是比基站数量更核心的能力，<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>将直接决定</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">与<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>场景衔接并走向生态成熟。<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>在新一轮管道创新的起点，更需要着眼中<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>向平台化方向发展，网络更深层次介入业务。对电信网进行软件化开放化改造，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有益于运营商开源节流，摆脱<span style="color: black;">自己</span>管道地位，但运营商缺乏技术能力，相当时间内还将依赖主设备商给出<span style="color: black;">方法</span>和牵引，中兴<span style="color: black;">这般</span>的龙头厂商在标准、<span style="color: black;">方法</span>、技术和实施上的具备核心价值。而成熟物联场景的落地，将从<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>方面支撑政企业务发展，在大物联时代<span style="color: black;">机构</span>价值将<span style="color: black;">连续</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">投资<span style="color: black;">意见</span>：</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>已卸下处罚的历史<span style="color: black;">包袱</span>，正在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">新起点蓄势待发。预计<span style="color: black;">机构</span></span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2021</span><span style="color: black;">年实现归母净利润分别为</span><span style="color: black;">46.49</span><span style="color: black;">亿、</span><span style="color: black;">60.35</span><span style="color: black;">亿和</span><span style="color: black;">75.09</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，对应</span><span style="color: black;">EPS</span><span style="color: black;">分别为</span><span style="color: black;">1.11</span><span style="color: black;">、</span><span style="color: black;">1.44</span><span style="color: black;">和</span><span style="color: black;">1.79</span><span style="color: black;">元。结合<span style="color: black;">机构</span>龙头地位和</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">潜在发展空间，给予</span><span style="color: black;">2020</span><span style="color: black;">年</span><span style="color: black;">30</span><span style="color: black;">倍市盈率，<span style="color: black;">目的</span>市值为</span><span style="color: black;">1800</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，维持</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">买入</span></strong><span style="color: black;">评级</span><span style="color: black;">。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">危害</span>提示事件：贸易争端悬而未决、</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">投资不及预期<span style="color: black;">危害</span>、市场系统性<span style="color: black;">危害</span>、技术<span style="color: black;">危害</span>、竞争<span style="color: black;">危害</span></span></strong>。</span></strong></span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6MRfQYCXPHrHWwdPBPpsasctycwGNEb5BZuYonQW99sK9hJrEne6LhpQ/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">目 录</strong></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6M9FXqoERdw5PdGBgkicGAxqXGliasAgccrbUL9nXRibU5brk2QJdubhgibw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfHQibxVdx4YsBzuFOGMiaUs8WKZkhaGSBj43lZXxDRPFe9SAUnNIsXOvg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6MRfQYCXPHrHWwdPBPpsasctycwGNEb5BZuYonQW99sK9hJrEne6LhpQ/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">核</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">心业务恢复常态，国内市场支撑势头向好</span></strong></span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6M9FXqoERdw5PdGBgkicGAxqXGliasAgccrbUL9nXRibU5brk2QJdubhgibw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"> <strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1.1 </span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">制度性<span style="color: black;">方法</span>将全面<span style="color: black;">保证</span>后续合规</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">完善的制度性<span style="color: black;">方法</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>实施，将从<span style="color: black;">基本</span>上管控<span style="color: black;">机构</span>合规<span style="color: black;">危害</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">与<span style="color: black;">第1</span>次处罚<span style="color: black;">处理</span><span style="color: black;">方法</span>的<span style="color: black;">基本</span>区别，在于美方提拟的新框架从制度上<span style="color: black;">保证</span>了中兴在后续运营过程中的合规：<span style="color: black;">尤其</span>合规协调员由美方挑选、实行全方位监督并随时向双方<span style="color: black;">报告</span>，<span style="color: black;">寓意</span>着美方<span style="color: black;">包袱</span>起监督责任，而中兴义务在于严格履行，再次违反条例的可能性极低，<span style="color: black;">能够</span>认为处罚尘埃落定</span><span style="color: black;">。</span></span>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfaX1CKVOFQOhySfcQkTwFu5D8hql89ac7dvU35d2yoy0dvugAYTJbxA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;">鉴于两次罚款<span style="color: black;">亦</span>已完全履行并<span style="color: black;">表现</span>到了财报中，<span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，中兴至此已较为彻底地切割了<span style="color: black;">触及</span>违反美国进出口条例的历史包袱，美方就<span style="color: black;">这事</span>再次提起制裁的可能性已极其微弱。</span>恰逢</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">开局，历经考验的中兴正站在新起点蓄势待发</span>！<span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1.2 &nbsp;</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务已恢复到常态水平，总体趋势向好</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务与资本开支直接<span style="color: black;">关联</span>，</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">网络建设推动业务规模达到新高。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>，跟随国内</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">建设，中兴的运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务规模经历了一个<span style="color: black;">明显</span>的趋势向上过程。业务规模在</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">年为</span><span style="color: black;">407</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，经过四年后创下</span><span style="color: black;">638</span><span style="color: black;">亿元的历史高位，复合增速</span><span style="color: black;">11.89%</span><span style="color: black;">，其走势相<span style="color: black;">针对</span>四年的国内运营商资本<span style="color: black;">起始</span><span style="color: black;">表现</span>得更为平滑，<span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">由于</span>订单确定之后于发货和<span style="color: black;">安排</span>实施。<span style="color: black;">总体上，其运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务在国内资本开支中的占比稳步<span style="color: black;">提高</span></span></span><span style="color: black;">。</span></span>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfRla5tNFSr2oyib1gicDZOWOmtbTYib2F6xna47iagOYML9SNtVu6TBwvng/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务恢复卓有成效，下半年起总体趋势<span style="color: black;">连续</span>向好。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年收到第二次处罚事件影响，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业务停止一个完整季度，总规模依然恢复到了</span><span style="color: black;">570</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，与</span><span style="color: black;">2015</span><span style="color: black;">和</span><span style="color: black;">2016</span><span style="color: black;">年几乎相当，而当年运营商总开支下降到了</span><span style="color: black;">2869</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，由此可见，中兴在运营商设备中的份额占比在当年还在<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，且</span><span style="color: black;">18Q4</span><span style="color: black;">的数据<span style="color: black;">亦</span>反应出<span style="color: black;">机构</span>运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务<span style="color: black;">已然</span>恢复到了正常水平，追赶工作卓有成效。业务毛利率突破此前</span><span style="color: black;">38.5%</span><span style="color: black;">的平台位置，近年一路向上，在</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年达到了</span><span style="color: black;">40.37%</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">表现</span>出在运营商市场中的设备<span style="color: black;">制品</span>结构<span style="color: black;">亦</span>在<span style="color: black;">连续</span>优化，软服务比重加大，盈利能力进一步加强</span>
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    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">。</p>

    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfe1BkJA31GkBOJibXGHp4MMcbibwOom0SJTK5KRNIr25QH9n6zV5HDo3A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">政企业务总量<span style="color: black;">安稳</span>，逆势向好，为稳定</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年的波动<span style="color: black;">供给</span>了重要支撑。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">政企业务总量<span style="color: black;">波涛</span>不惊，近三年<span style="color: black;">始终</span>盘整在</span><span style="color: black;">90</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">100</span><span style="color: black;">亿元水平，从收入规模和毛利水平看，</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2015</span><span style="color: black;">年经历了业务结构的优化，毛利率从</span><span style="color: black;">30%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">提高</span>到</span><span style="color: black;">40%</span><span style="color: black;">，到</span><span style="color: black;">2017</span><span style="color: black;">年经过<span style="color: black;">调节</span>的毛利率<span style="color: black;">已然</span>企稳在</span><span style="color: black;">30%</span><span style="color: black;">水平。</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年政企业务逆势向好，对总营收规模形<span style="color: black;">成为了</span>强有力的支撑。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>业务范畴<span style="color: black;">重点</span>源自大型</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端客户和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端场景的整网<span style="color: black;">处理</span><span style="color: black;">方法</span>，<span style="color: black;">做为</span>电信网业务的延伸，其基线水平对后续业务发展有重要参考<span style="color: black;">道理</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfLjNia9QzA7cSojHWcib1ZicRHFNjXo8ZAgPVYFv6mGuSJv3OK8TUD294A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">消费者业务呈现出<span style="color: black;">很强</span>波动，</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年所受冲击尤甚，预计再难回归到往年平均水平。</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span>的消费者业务面临<span style="color: black;">很强</span>波动，<span style="color: black;">按照</span>披露，</span><span style="color: black;">2014</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2015</span><span style="color: black;">年在</span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;">手机海外市场<span style="color: black;">需要</span>带动下，借助运营商<span style="color: black;">营销</span><span style="color: black;">途径</span>，规模<span style="color: black;">提升</span>较快，一举站到</span><span style="color: black;">325</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">350</span><span style="color: black;">亿的新台阶，但</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年的处罚事件对其手机在海外市场的冲击最为<span style="color: black;">显著</span>，总规模下降到不足</span><span style="color: black;">200</span><span style="color: black;">亿，跌幅超过四成，毛利率<span style="color: black;">调节</span>到</span><span style="color: black;">12%</span><span style="color: black;">的历史低位，面对集中度和竞争仍在加剧的品牌手机市场，失去的市场份额在相当时间内恐难回归，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为将维持在当前的较低水平</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">总体上，中兴核心的运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务已充分恢复，规模和盈利能力向上趋势已现，在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">驱动下达到新的水平具备良好的<span style="color: black;">基本</span>；政企业务企稳回升，并有望在产业物联发展带动下迎来业务规模扩大和毛利率的<span style="color: black;">连续</span>改善；消费者业务虽然走向收缩，但<span style="color: black;">同期</span>对盈利的拖累<span style="color: black;">亦</span>在减小，还需<span style="color: black;">连续</span>关注对该业务线的战略定位</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1.3&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">业务呈现区域性分化，对国内市场的倚重正在加强</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">各项业务在国内的体量正在加大，毛利率<span style="color: black;">广泛</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>对国内市场的倚重<span style="color: black;">将来</span>还将<span style="color: black;">连续</span>加强。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务规模<span style="color: black;">提升</span>，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>依靠国内</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">市场的推动，从</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2017</span><span style="color: black;">年在总量大幅向上的背景下，国内比重从不到</span><span style="color: black;">56%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">提升</span>到接近</span><span style="color: black;">65%</span><span style="color: black;">，而同期国外市场规模基本维持在</span><span style="color: black;">200</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">230</span><span style="color: black;">亿区间，<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">明显</span>的突破。</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年受到冲击后，对国外市场依赖更加削弱，国内占比攀升到接近</span><span style="color: black;">70%</span><span style="color: black;">。<span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计进入</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">周期</span>，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务<span style="color: black;">针对</span>国内市场的倚重还将强化，国内市场占比有望达到</span><span style="color: black;">70~80%</span><span style="color: black;">的水平</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sf8JjpBUGgs2RhUib9k9LloJWRkQGgjQEnaupvKA3ibzH78H1G8XJKmkAg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">政企业务虽然整体收缩<span style="color: black;">显著</span>，但国内规模基本稳定，从而占比<span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">2015</span><span style="color: black;">年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>政企业务波动向下，从超过</span><span style="color: black;">100</span><span style="color: black;">亿降至</span><span style="color: black;">92</span><span style="color: black;">亿，而<span style="color: black;">时期</span>内国内市场规模保持在</span><span style="color: black;">65</span><span style="color: black;">亿元<span style="color: black;">上下</span>，因而占比<span style="color: black;">连续</span>向上，尤其</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年保持稳定，使得国内份额占比突破了</span><span style="color: black;">70%</span><span style="color: black;">。<span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">将来</span>产业物联网<span style="color: black;">伴同</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">兴盛，预计国内行业客户<span style="color: black;">需要</span>和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端场景将带来可观的增量，政企业务有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>增长，权重稳步<span style="color: black;">提升</span></span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sf8rt0FZNacNYN6ozv7sZ6DvbCBiaa6ic0b5PWBiaFuy2GTria0qibDrUb6bg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">消</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">费者业务海内外全面下滑，尚需结合<span style="color: black;">机构</span>战略判断业务的长期发展。</strong>消费者业务线的国外市场依赖度相对较高，占比<span style="color: black;">始终</span>过半，<span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">由于</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>手机<span style="color: black;">制品</span>定位在运营商<span style="color: black;">途径</span>，在国内激烈的品牌机竞争环境中缺乏<span style="color: black;">优良</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年对消费者业务带来的冲击最为<span style="color: black;">显著</span>，总规模下降超过</span><span style="color: black;">4</span><span style="color: black;">成，海外业务从</span><span style="color: black;">200</span><span style="color: black;">亿<span style="color: black;">上下</span>下降到</span><span style="color: black;">100</span><span style="color: black;">亿，国内<span style="color: black;">亦</span>从</span><span style="color: black;">156</span><span style="color: black;">亿下降到</span><span style="color: black;">92</span><span style="color: black;">亿，国内外占比<span style="color: black;">日前</span>接近对半。对消费者业务趋势较难形成判断，重点需要关注<span style="color: black;">机构</span>战略定位。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfVfgp1VVSvuGMLN8WqdLKzbLZaSBZTaVIlQB6iayN0hYC5eMxF0n9Y5Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">综合来看，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>运营商和政企业务线对国内市场的倚重将<span style="color: black;">连续</span>加大，<span style="color: black;">思虑</span>到</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">的<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>投资周期跨度和总规模都将空前，而本土布局</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">的力度和节奏上将有<span style="color: black;">明显</span>的领先性，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，中兴<span style="color: black;">这里</span>一过程中将会充分受益于本土，运营商和政企业务将跟随资本开支和</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端业务充分打开，在<span style="color: black;">全世界</span><span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span>的份额<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将呈现稳步<span style="color: black;">提高</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">从4G的后来居上，看<span style="color: black;">机构</span>在5G起点的潜质</strong></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDplxFib9TCzEbG1PPUrqfKV6M9FXqoERdw5PdGBgkicGAxqXGliasAgccrbUL9nXRibU5brk2QJdubhgibw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2.1&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">无线业务后来居上，筑实<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>竞争力</span></strong></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">起点，有望重现</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">资本开支快速向上势头。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">国内<span style="color: black;">起步</span></span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;">建设较晚，但<span style="color: black;">作为</span>了撬动<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>投资的力量，总资本开支呈现<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的周期性。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，<span style="color: black;">这般</span>的快速<span style="color: black;">起步</span>将从今年起重现，并且开支水平和跨度都将超过之前水平</span>。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfJjzTewLBrPtQdwRpY7w0F2rchsgVvHJe6wImEcVdELJcMicRhfE7ib0w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建设前三年总资本开支将快速攀升，有望超过</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">最高水平并<span style="color: black;">连续</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">中性预测，</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span><span style="color: black;">周期</span>（</span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年）建设预计将呈现和</span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;">类似的攀升节奏，从</span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2021</span><span style="color: black;">年经历从</span><span style="color: black;">3000</span><span style="color: black;">亿到</span><span style="color: black;">4000</span><span style="color: black;">亿总开支的爬坡，增速有望达到</span><span style="color: black;">15%</span><span style="color: black;">；</span><span style="color: black;">2022</span><span style="color: black;">和</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年总开支将维持在</span><span style="color: black;">4300</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">4500</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，与</span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">周期</span>的高位相当，增速回落到</span><span style="color: black;">5%</span><span style="color: black;">。预计随着</span><span style="color: black;">5G R16</span><span style="color: black;">标准的推出，<span style="color: black;">这般</span>的投资规模还将延续</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">中移动仍将是带动产业投资的主力，贡献过半的开支投入；联通在混改带动和战略<span style="color: black;">调节</span>下，资本开支比重有望从不足</span><span style="color: black;">20%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">提高</span>到</span><span style="color: black;">22%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>；电信的比重约在</span><span style="color: black;">25%</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">28%之</span><span style="color: black;">间。广电在投资和运营方面的策略尚未<span style="color: black;">知道</span>，若采取共享电信运营商传输网的方式，其<span style="color: black;">自己</span>预计将引入</span><span style="color: black;">10%</span><span style="color: black;">的投资增量，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>用于移动接入和汇聚网建设</span></span><span style="color: black;">。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfHcsSwsa7zYOVwyhicHqt17H302TVDRsqaDY54qI7FpEu9xXLogn7h1w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">运营商无线业务开支占比稳步<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">有望保持较高水平。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">考察近年来无线业务，从披露的总开支结构看，在</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">年比重仅为</span><span style="color: black;">35%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>，而后续连上台阶，</span><span style="color: black;">2016</span><span style="color: black;">年已站上</span><span style="color: black;">53%</span><span style="color: black;">。后续比重<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计不<span style="color: black;">小于</span></span><span style="color: black;">50%</span><span style="color: black;">，且有望稳步<span style="color: black;">提高</span>达到</span><span style="color: black;">55%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>。<span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">由于</span>局房土建布局相对成熟，设备投资集中度<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，尤其</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建设初期将以移动接入网为投资重点</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">无线开支有望<span style="color: black;">快速</span>向上，总规模较</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">无线开支规模<span style="color: black;">起步</span>节奏有望和</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">类似，从</span><span style="color: black;">1500</span><span style="color: black;">亿逐步攀升，到</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年有望逼近</span><span style="color: black;">2500</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，</span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年无线总开支规模有望在</span><span style="color: black;">10000</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，超过</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年无线开支口径</span><span style="color: black;">8190</span><span style="color: black;">亿元的约</span><span style="color: black;">20%</span><span style="color: black;">。<span style="color: black;">思虑</span>到<span style="color: black;">包括</span>了</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">开支，预计<span style="color: black;">时期</span></span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">开支为</span><span style="color: black;">8500</span><span style="color: black;">亿到</span><span style="color: black;">9000</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，较</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">至</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年</span><span style="color: black;">LTE</span><span style="color: black;">的</span><span style="color: black;">7200</span><span style="color: black;">亿<span style="color: black;">上下</span>水平<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了</span><span style="color: black;">20%</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">25%</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">针对</span>无线设备产业链带动效应<span style="color: black;">显著</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfjQf2LlmBQ3JN2SlRzb0kYUrLQ6p6NYsTKHGE5BAoV2OBpXQKY6rpsA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中游无线设备商受益<span style="color: black;">知道</span>，总收入规模将快速增长。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">基于产业链调研统计，运营商财报中的无线开支口径中，约</span><span style="color: black;">3</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">4</span><span style="color: black;">成会用于采购设备（其余为局房土建和动力环境配套），<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>对国内设备市场的总规模进行估计，从</span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">年，中性预期下国内市场纳入到设备商的规模约从</span><span style="color: black;">520</span><span style="color: black;">亿元<span style="color: black;">提高</span>至</span><span style="color: black;">860</span><span style="color: black;">亿元<span style="color: black;">上下</span>，<span style="color: black;">阳光</span>和悲观预期下，设备商总收入规模大约上下浮动</span><span style="color: black;">13~15%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">回顾中兴自</span><span style="color: black;">3G</span><span style="color: black;">以来在国内无线设备市场的份额，<span style="color: black;">通常</span>在</span><span style="color: black;">30~35%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>水平，据此在中性预测下，中兴<span style="color: black;">将来</span>五年的无线设备收入约为</span><span style="color: black;">172</span><span style="color: black;">亿元到</span><span style="color: black;">286</span><span style="color: black;">亿元。<span style="color: black;">根据</span><span style="color: black;">阳光</span>和悲观预期，则口径比照中性各上下浮动</span><span style="color: black;">20%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>，波动加大的<span style="color: black;">原由</span><span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">由于</span>中兴份额在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">周期</span>可能产生更大的变化</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">需要<span style="color: black;">重视</span>，<span style="color: black;">这儿</span>讨论的是纯粹出售设备的收入口径，而中兴整体的无线收入口径除此之外，还有<span style="color: black;">包含</span>可选软件特性和硬件许可等的专业服务，该部分跟随存量网络规模、生命周期、和<span style="color: black;">详细</span>客户<span style="color: black;">需要</span>动态变化，还有部分出自</span><span style="color: black;">opex</span><span style="color: black;">，因而差异<span style="color: black;">很强</span>，难以统计预测。<span style="color: black;">因此</span>中兴后续确认的运营<span style="color: black;">商场</span>务整体规模可能<span style="color: black;">显著</span>超出这一水平。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfdO4HYs6kCJaRLqvlDq3TuOjuQicHoUf38Xp5Wve5cBhlTAj3XRBEayg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中兴有望巩固</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">无线设备前四的地位，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>份额较</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">时代<span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">根据</span><span style="color: black;">StrategyAnalytics</span><span style="color: black;">估计，截止到</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年，虽然被排除在美国和若干市场之外，华为仍将以</span><span style="color: black;">25%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>的比重<span style="color: black;">作为</span></span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">时代</span><span style="color: black;">RAN</span><span style="color: black;">设备的<span style="color: black;">第1</span>供应商，而第二梯队的爱立信和诺西比重约在</span><span style="color: black;">22~23%</span><span style="color: black;">之间。在第三梯队的中兴和三星，比重大致相当，约在</span><span style="color: black;">13~15%</span><span style="color: black;">之间，三星<span style="color: black;">重点</span>受益于美国和韩国市场的积极推动，而中兴则<span style="color: black;">重点</span>依赖于国内市场。其他部分<span style="color: black;">包含</span>各类</span><span style="color: black;">OpenRAN</span><span style="color: black;">厂商，在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建设<span style="color: black;">第1</span><span style="color: black;">周期</span>比重不高，后续随着微基站渗透率的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>和开放体系设备产业链的成熟，将有望<span style="color: black;">提高</span>到</span><span style="color: black;">2%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span>水平。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，至</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年<span style="color: black;">全世界</span></span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">无线接入设备将高度成熟，<span style="color: black;">作为</span><span style="color: black;">全世界</span>消费者和企业用户<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>接受的经济适用技术。<span style="color: black;">而中国市场的先发和规模<span style="color: black;">优良</span>使得其</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">规模占比不<span style="color: black;">小于</span></span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">，预计中国</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建站占比将保持在</span><span style="color: black;">60~70%</span><span style="color: black;">，会给本土设备厂商带来重大机遇。<span style="color: black;">处在</span>产业链中游核心的中兴在无线设备上的规模和占比将从而远超</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">水平</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2.2&nbsp; <span style="color: black;">机构</span>将<span style="color: black;">连续</span>收益于5G</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">带动下的整网升级与竞争格局优化</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">整网流量指数级<span style="color: black;">提高</span>是驱动传输网扩容升级的<span style="color: black;">长时间</span><span style="color: black;">规律</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">宽带普及率和骨干网架构经过<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>铺垫，网络拓扑的主干结构已基本达成。后续跟随流量向上，围绕光器件和光网络设备的升级将<span style="color: black;">连续</span>，总量<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将紧跟</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">无线接入网投入再上台阶</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dvsw6W0jDpnPLJiadD0QDz5oVvEWLy0sfxRNpcavUwyKprXoeicwGyZdXePvmbxdTIlt98kHvBBFz6bD4khnhdIg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中兴在<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>传输设备的占比有望稳步向上。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">从</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">败兴</span>的光网络投资来看，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>总规模稳步向上，从</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">年的</span><span style="color: black;">877</span><span style="color: black;">亿<span style="color: black;">上下</span>攀升到</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年的</span><span style="color: black;">1167</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，虽然经历几次<span style="color: black;">曲折</span>，中兴在光传输设备中的比重稳定在</span><span style="color: black;">12~14%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计，经过</span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">和</span><span style="color: black;">2020</span><span style="color: black;">年的<span style="color: black;">安稳</span>增长后，无线端引入的流量增长将倒逼传输网投资<span style="color: black;">提升</span>到一个新水平，在</span><span style="color: black;">2021</span><span style="color: black;">年之后有望达到</span><span style="color: black;">1400~1500</span><span style="color: black;">亿元的水平，并而其中最<span style="color: black;">重点</span>的投入来自中国市场。<span style="color: black;">中兴在<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>市场的比重将因而小幅<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，进入</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">14~16%</span><span style="color: black;">的区间，推动<span style="color: black;">关联</span>业务稳健增长</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">乘势国内</span><span style="color: black;">IP</span><span style="color: black;">承载网升级改造，中兴市场份额有望<span style="color: black;">快速</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">随着</span><span style="color: black;">ICT</span><span style="color: black;">融合与电信网络设备开放化，</span><span style="color: black;">IP</span><span style="color: black;">承载网设备规模将在技术路径变革下走向规模的稳步增长。从</span><span style="color: black;">2013</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2018</span><span style="color: black;">年，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span></span><span style="color: black;">IP</span><span style="color: black;">承载设备从</span><span style="color: black;">900</span><span style="color: black;">亿缓慢<span style="color: black;">提高</span>至</span><span style="color: black;">1000</span><span style="color: black;">亿<span style="color: black;">上下</span>；预计后面五年将延续大致相当的增速，直到</span><span style="color: black;">2023</span><span style="color: black;">年行业规模大约将从</span><span style="color: black;">1000</span><span style="color: black;">亿<span style="color: black;">提高</span>至</span><span style="color: black;">1200</span><span style="color: black;">亿元。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因为</span>起步较晚，中兴在该<span style="color: black;">行业</span>份额不算<span style="color: black;">明显</span>，近两年</span><span style="color: black;">IP</span><span style="color: black;">承载高端设备取得突破进入运营商关键采购，份额从</span><span style="color: black;">5%</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">上下</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>至</span><span style="color: black;">7%</span><span style="color: black;">。<span style="color: black;">受益于国内自主可控<span style="color: black;">需要</span>，和<span style="color: black;">制品</span>升级换代，中兴在该<span style="color: black;">行业</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>将实现份额的进一步<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>占比有望触及</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">12%</span><span style="color: black;">的高位。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">固网接入市场已相当普及和成熟，增量来自于部分对铜接入的替代和光接入的速率升级，以及</span><span style="color: black;">FTTx</span><span style="color: black;">渗透的深化。预计<span style="color: black;">将来</span>五年<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>规模保持在</span><span style="color: black;">600~650</span><span style="color: black;">亿之间的水平，而中兴占比<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将保持和</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">周期</span>相当，约在</span><span style="color: black;">13~17%</span><span style="color: black;">之间</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">综合来看，</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">带来的外延性规模效应和市场结构变化将在其他<span style="color: black;">重点</span>电信网设备<span style="color: black;">行业</span>为中兴赋予机遇，中国<span style="color: black;">关联</span>市场的强势扩张<span style="color: black;">亦</span>使得<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>份额<span style="color: black;">连续</span>优化</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">5G管道创新起点，网络平台化依赖主设备商<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>引导</strong></span></p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">ICT</span><span style="color: black;">产业融合加深，产业发展呈现<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的管端云轮动趋势。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">3G</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">败兴</span>，电信网与互联网融合加深，并借助全国骨干网和移动端入口<span style="color: black;">作为</span>了事实上的网络<span style="color: black;">基本</span>平台。移动带宽的打开为终端创新奠定了前提，苹果手机在</span><span style="color: black;">2007</span><span style="color: black;">年掀起了智能终端革命，进入移动互联时代，紧随智能机渗透率<span style="color: black;">提高</span>的是</span><span style="color: black;">ios</span><span style="color: black;">和安卓构建起的应用生态，催动了云数据中心和云服务的深度发展。从管到端到云的创新轮动轨迹<span style="color: black;">知道</span>，电信网和数通网融合加深。</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">管端云创新互为促进，移动互联<span style="color: black;">需要</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>充分发掘。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">当应用生态进一步发展，<span style="color: black;">尤其</span>是大流量消耗和交互式业务涌现之后，</span><span style="color: black;">3G</span><span style="color: black;">网络承压加重，逐步<span style="color: black;">作为</span>制约移动互联发展的瓶颈。为了<span style="color: black;">提高</span>网络移动宽带化接入能力，</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">标准几乎是随着移动互联业务<span style="color: black;">起步</span>而同步提出，并在两年后的</span><span style="color: black;">2009</span><span style="color: black;">年开启了<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>商用，是云服务进一步推动管道发展的样例。其后手机渗透率加深，功能性能<span style="color: black;">持续</span>升级，</span><span style="color: black;">O2O</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">需要</span>被充分发掘，</span><span style="color: black;">4G</span><span style="color: black;">管道又<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>为了端和云<span style="color: black;">连续</span>变革的<span style="color: black;">基本</span>。经过十年，<span style="color: black;">尤其</span>是国内近五年的发展，全球移动互联已广泛扎根社会生活各方面，<span style="color: black;">需要</span>发掘相当充分</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">如今管道能力（不只是流量）再次<span style="color: black;">作为</span>局限，创新轮动将倒逼网络演进，再次进入管创新周期。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">90</span><span style="color: black;">年代的信息高速公路实现了计算机间的互联，新<span style="color: black;">需要</span>和软硬件互为促进，孕育出大批科技巨头，是信息时代从无到有的里程碑。移动互联网<span style="color: black;">处理</span>了人与人之间的互联，业务与网络新形态再次勃发，</span><span style="color: black;">ICT</span><span style="color: black;">产业完成深度融合。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">则是界分人联与物联<span style="color: black;">需要</span>的<span style="color: black;">基本</span><span style="color: black;">设备</span>，产业<span style="color: black;">道理</span>堪比信息高速公路，又一轮创新周期将由此<span style="color: black;">起步</span></span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">产业物联网细分快速探索发展，运营商和产业应用端相向而行，行业与网络整合正在强化</span></strong><span style="color: black;">。中国移动正在就<span style="color: black;">重点</span>的产业应用展开试点，华为的</span><span style="color: black;">X-Lab</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">亦</span>在就类似的网络应用一体化<span style="color: black;">方法</span>进行探索，取得了快速<span style="color: black;">发展</span>，<span style="color: black;">例如</span>工业路由器、能源水利、智能抄表（电表、燃气表、水表）和<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>阀、空港物流<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的资产追溯、智慧城市、智能安防、<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>屏联网等等。<span style="color: black;">随着高通、英特尔和华为的高性能、低延时和多制式兼容性更好的终端基带芯片发布，</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">PC</span><span style="color: black;">、网关、</span><span style="color: black;">CPE</span><span style="color: black;">、</span><span style="color: black;">FWA</span><span style="color: black;">等接入方式更<span style="color: black;">方便</span>，</span><span style="color: black;">MCU</span><span style="color: black;">中游能力的<span style="color: black;">提高</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>将使垂直行业与</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">的整合进程加速，为<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>的行业物联网应用创造<span style="color: black;">要求</span></span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络深度介入业务，有望从管道化向平台运营化转变，网络价值将由此大幅<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">首次<span style="color: black;">知道</span>提出面向万物互联，<span style="color: black;">需求</span>管道有能力将相互孤立的各类型终端、设备或子网络全面联通，复合性网络能力<span style="color: black;">作为</span>产业发展的先决<span style="color: black;">要求</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端<span style="color: black;">需要</span>和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端场景差异化<span style="color: black;">明显</span>，将<span style="color: black;">所有</span>承载在统一的网络平台上，网络将由此与业务深度交融，设备、终端和应用会<span style="color: black;">出现</span>难以想象的深刻演进，<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>看将是大数据与智能化发展的新起点。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">不单只是网络，而将发展为围绕运营的平台，这是与前几代通信网络的核心差别</span></span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">绝非仅指移动接入网，其本质是对网络能力软件化的统一平台，以满足对<span style="color: black;">区别</span>场景<span style="color: black;">供给</span>特性化的切片，实现这一<span style="color: black;">目的</span>的实效将决定</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">的<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>发展。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">现有的网络由专用设备<span style="color: black;">构成</span>，<span style="color: black;">无</span>统一平台，除了同质化的管道功能，<span style="color: black;">没法</span>实现业务定制化，在</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">首要<span style="color: black;">处理</span>的<span style="color: black;">便是</span>以统一开放平台容纳通用设备并<span style="color: black;">供给</span>特性化的网络能力。运营商主导的产业联盟是主导力量，典型如中移动推动的</span><span style="color: black;">ORAN</span><span style="color: black;">，聚拢数十家运营商和上游厂商：一方面界定技术规范，使得设备通用化，网络架构向扁平化；另方面对下游<span style="color: black;">供给</span>开放的应用接口，运营商和</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端客户能按需对网络进行编排、分配和使能。<span style="color: black;">运营商在整网<span style="color: black;">方法</span>和技术能力上<span style="color: black;">已然</span>完全依赖于龙头主设备商，在</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">建设前期，网络平台化的实践成效将决定</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">的<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>发展。</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络向开放化平台化演进，主设备龙头将引领<span style="color: black;">方法</span>变革，前期在设备产业链中的价值比重将居于高位。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">电信网向开放平台化过度大致可分为两个<span style="color: black;">周期</span>，<span style="color: black;">首要</span>是网络设备的<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>面与转发面解耦合；<span style="color: black;">另一</span>是对<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>面实现接口开放与软件可定义。<span style="color: black;">因为</span>电信<span style="color: black;">方法</span>与设备<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>由主设备商<span style="color: black;">供给</span>，运营商事实上不具备技术能力，<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>不论产业联盟的统一平台标准，还是产业链<span style="color: black;">关联</span>核心设备的供应，在相当长一段时间内还将由龙头设备商完成，而经过十余年的竞争涤荡，具备全系统实施能力的<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">日前</span>仅余五强，竞争结构很难进一步优化。电信网<span style="color: black;">做为</span>关键<span style="color: black;">基本</span><span style="color: black;">设备</span>，市场地缘倾向又非常<span style="color: black;">显著</span>，<span style="color: black;">能够</span>认为后续<span style="color: black;">针对</span></span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络的开放平台改造，仅可能由中兴和华为两家牵引完成</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">主设备商将有<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>机会介入</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端的边缘子网络的<span style="color: black;">方法</span>设计与实施，开辟政企业务新空间。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">产业物联网面向工业、农业、能源、电力、交通、物流、零售、金融等行业应用，以及智慧城市和安防等，<span style="color: black;">作为</span>行业升级的<span style="color: black;">基本</span><span style="color: black;">设备</span>，在业务与网络融合过程中，差异化<span style="color: black;">需要</span><span style="color: black;">常常</span>需要网络设备商在<span style="color: black;">方法</span>伊始就做好全面深入的<span style="color: black;">需要</span>分析和<span style="color: black;">方法</span>设计，大行业应用的推广，将使中兴的政企业务<span style="color: black;">分部</span>不单局限在企业网的小型</span><span style="color: black;">IT</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">方法</span>中，对内聚性较强的</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端业务和</span><span style="color: black;">G</span><span style="color: black;">端场景有望在全国范围积极推广，为政企业务带来重大的业务增量机遇</span>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，<span style="color: black;">处在</span>创新起点的</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">网络，<span style="color: black;">道理</span>不止于扩充移动接入流量，最本质的创新在于网络能力平台化开放化，实施的成效将决定后期端创新与云创新的成败。而电信网的设备白盒与能力软件变革，<span style="color: black;">仅有</span>主设备商有能力逐步牵引完成，在相当长一段时间，中兴在中游的核心地位将<span style="color: black;">连续</span>凸显；并且差异化的边缘子网深度介入业务运营，数量<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>规模更大的政企业务<span style="color: black;">需要</span>将随之打开，中兴在网络和政企业务两方面将迎来<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>的高质量发展</span>。</p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">投 资 建 议</strong></p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为，去年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>已卸下处罚的历史<span style="color: black;">包袱</span>，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>业务恢复常态并全面向好。</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">开局之年，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>蓄势待发，将直接受益于</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">整网升级带来的投资上量以及竞争地位<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">电信网管道走向平台化将<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>凸显主设备商价值，物联场景逐步成熟<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将为政企业务引入新的机遇。</span></span>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计<span style="color: black;">机构</span></span><span style="color: black;">2019</span><span style="color: black;">到</span><span style="color: black;">2021</span><span style="color: black;">年实现归母净利润分别为</span><span style="color: black;">46.49</span><span style="color: black;">亿、</span><span style="color: black;">60.35</span><span style="color: black;">亿和</span><span style="color: black;">75.09</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，对应</span><span style="color: black;">EPS</span><span style="color: black;">分别为</span><span style="color: black;">1.11</span><span style="color: black;">、</span><span style="color: black;">1.44</span><span style="color: black;">和</span><span style="color: black;">1.79</span><span style="color: black;">元。结合<span style="color: black;">机构</span>龙头地位和</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">潜在发展空间，给予</span><span style="color: black;">2020</span><span style="color: black;">年</span><span style="color: black;">30</span><span style="color: black;">倍市盈率，<span style="color: black;">目的</span>市值为</span><span style="color: black;">1800</span><span style="color: black;">亿元，维持</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">买入</span></strong><span style="color: black;">评级</span>。</span>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">风 险 分 析</strong></p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"> <span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">贸易争端悬而未决，</span></strong><span style="color: black;">今年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>中美之间贸易争端<span style="color: black;">连续</span>升温，并在可见<span style="color: black;">将来</span><span style="color: black;">无</span>完全落定的迹象，贸易争端<span style="color: black;">已然</span><span style="color: black;">作为</span>影响市场的重要不确定<span style="color: black;">原因</span>之一。尤其今年上半年面向华为和国内科技产业的封锁和支持，对本土厂商表现出<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的针对性，贸易争端以何种方式达成暂时性共识超出了常规的<span style="color: black;">科研</span>范畴，需要保持高度关注</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">投资不及预期<span style="color: black;">危害</span></span></strong><span style="color: black;">，电信网在<span style="color: black;">将来</span>一到两年的行情都是以</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">投资为纲，</span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">投资规模直接决定设备商和产业链上游的订单规模与发展前景。<span style="color: black;">日前</span></span><span style="color: black;">5G</span><span style="color: black;">尚<span style="color: black;">处在</span><span style="color: black;">实验</span>和产业链培育<span style="color: black;">周期</span>，各家运营商<span style="color: black;">无</span>给出<span style="color: black;">知道</span>的投资规划，在<span style="color: black;">实质</span>投建之后有可能总规模<span style="color: black;">或</span>节奏不及预期，对通信板块的行情<span style="color: black;">导致</span>系统性影响</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">市场系统性<span style="color: black;">危害</span>，</span></strong><span style="color: black;">今年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>在经济增速放缓、部分<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业绩不及预期、股权质押<span style="color: black;">危害</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>和<span style="color: black;">外边</span><span style="color: black;">原因</span>等<span style="color: black;">一起</span><span style="color: black;">功效</span>下，市场<span style="color: black;">心情</span>偏<span style="color: black;">小心</span>，大市行情<span style="color: black;">连续</span>下探，明年宏观层面<span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">原因</span>仍可能对市场产生<span style="color: black;">消极</span>影响</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">技术<span style="color: black;">危害</span>，</span></strong><span style="color: black;">ICT</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">行业</span>属于高度技术密集型，代际技术差距<span style="color: black;">针对</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>竞争力和市场份额的影响是决定性的，后发厂商在关键<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的技术突破是对先进<span style="color: black;">机构</span>实现反超的核心前提，但技术的<span style="color: black;">累积</span>和发展有其<span style="color: black;">自己</span>客观规律，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>存在<span style="color: black;">必定</span>程度的随机<span style="color: black;">成份</span>，在市场争夺时间窗内未完成技术突破或<span style="color: black;">选取</span>了错误技术路线有可能对<span style="color: black;">机构</span>发展<span style="color: black;">导致</span>严重<span style="color: black;">消极</span>影响</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">竞争<span style="color: black;">危害</span>，</span></strong><span style="color: black;">通信行业各分市场的集中度<span style="color: black;">连续</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>，竞争从业务布局、核心技术、人才、资金和政策等方面展开，<span style="color: black;">连续</span>加大，不确定性<span style="color: black;">亦</span>在<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，需要<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>保持关注</span>。</span><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">科技和通信产业<span style="color: black;">科研</span></span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">公众号：TMT吴友文</span></p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">长按识别二维码关注</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中泰通信互联网团队</span></strong></p><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">吴友文</span></strong></span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">，</span><span style="color: black;">中泰通信互联网首席分析师</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">执业证书编号：S0740518050001</p>
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    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">易景明</span><span style="color: black;">，中泰通信互联网资深分析师</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">执业证书编号：S0740518050003</span></p>
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    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">陈宁玉</span></span><span style="color: black;">，中泰通信互联网资深分析师</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">执业证书编号：S0740517020004</span></p>
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    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">周铃雅</span><span style="color: black;">，中泰通信互联网<span style="color: black;">科研</span>助理</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">Email：zhouly@<span style="color: black;">r.qlzq.com.cn</span></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">尤其</span>声明</span><span style="color: black;">：</span></strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施，<span style="color: black;">经过</span><span style="color: black;">微X</span>订阅号制作的本资料仅面向中泰证券客户中的专业投资者，完整的投资观点应以中泰证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>所发布的<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告为准。若您非中泰证券客户中的专业投资者，为<span style="color: black;">保准</span>服务质量、<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>投资<span style="color: black;">危害</span>，请勿订阅、接受或<span style="color: black;">运用</span>本订阅号中的任何信息。</p>

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听听海 发表于 2024-9-4 12:58:44

说得好啊！我在外链论坛打滚这么多年，所谓阅人无数，就算没有见过猪走路，也总明白猪肉是啥味道的。

查看完整版本: 【中泰通信 | 深度】中兴通讯：5G新起点，网络创新凸显主设备很久价值