美元兑人民币重心下移,整体高位波动
<a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/67bnrK1HEsNtV3t2UHGDynDmbAqFia3JicZiaibibgvYpgdfic651jERcG6qNPNV7TQFJnVZjdHJEaN1oR0cB1Mhpz6A/640?wx_fmt=gif&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></span></a><p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/67bnrK1HEsMeQ1Avk06HkEz8C5lePwpCZMnKccI2iaAJgd8IHdzZhQJzGduQjAkMTEwuvCcrXm30t3UqQtg8nfw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3<span style="color: black;">月</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">11</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">日</span>-3<span style="color: black;">月</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">15</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">日,</span>2024<span style="color: black;">总第</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">10</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">期</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">本周</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">看点</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1、</span>本周人民币汇率市场</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">展望</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">美元:美指短线低位运行</span><span style="color: black;">,</span><span style="color: black;">等待数据</span><span style="color: black;">周内指引</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">人民币:美元</span><span style="color: black;">兑人民币</span><span style="color: black;">重心略有</span><span style="color: black;">下移,</span><span style="color: black;">但</span><span style="color: black;">整体依旧维持高位波动</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">欧元:欧元兑</span><span style="color: black;">人民币</span><span style="color: black;">可参考<span style="color: black;">5</span>日均线支撑(<span style="color: black;">7.8495</span>)</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">日元:日元</span><span style="color: black;">兑人民</span><span style="color: black;">币再度大幅<span style="color: black;">大涨</span>概率较低</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">2、</span></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">本周关注焦点</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">1</span><span style="color: black;">、</span><span style="color: black;">经济数据</span><span style="color: black;">:美国</span><span style="color: black;">2</span><span style="color: black;">月<span style="color: black;">C</span></span><span style="color: black;">PI</span><span style="color: black;">、<span style="color: black;">PPI</span>、</span><span style="color: black;">零售<span style="color: black;">营销</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2</span><span style="color: black;">、重要事件</span><span style="color: black;">:</span><span style="color: black;">欧洲央行、英国</span><span style="color: black;">央行<span style="color: black;">针对</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">将来</span></span><span style="color: black;">货币政策的讨论</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">上</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">周</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">市场回顾</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">【</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">美元兑人民币</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">】</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">货币对</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">开盘价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">最高价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">最低价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">收盘价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">涨跌幅</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">USD/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1962</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1997</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1798</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1876</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.12% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">USD/CNH</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.2080</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.2175</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1838</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.1988</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.14% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">US Dollar Index</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">103.85</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">103.96</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">102.34</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">102.74</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-1.10% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">【</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">人民币</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">】</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">货币对</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">开盘价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">最高价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">最低价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">收盘价</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">涨跌幅</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">EUR/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.8002</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.8785</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.7997</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.8590</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.78% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">JPY/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.0479</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.0489</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.0478</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.0488</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">1.94% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CAD/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3092</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3481</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.2915</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3294</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.44% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">AUD/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.6959</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.7792</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.6632</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.7615</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">1.42% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">HKD/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.9187</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.9202</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.9180</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.9183</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.04% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/INR</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">11.5123</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">11.5214</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">11.4905</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">11.5106</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.01% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/VND</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">3422.00</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">3430.70</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">3420.80</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">3427.30</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.15% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/THB</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.9766</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.9844</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.9209</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">4.9219</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-1.24% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">SGD/CNY</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3541</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.4070</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3527</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">5.3962</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">0.80% ↑</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/PHP</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.7969</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.7969</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.7312</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">7.7523</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.57% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/ZAR</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2.6519</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2.6567</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2.5953</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2.6046</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-1.93% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/KHR</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">564.23</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">569.71</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">562.70</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">563.39</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.15% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">CNY/RUB</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">12.7385</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">12.7457</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">12.4941</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">12.6406</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">-0.77% ↓</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">本周外汇</strong><strong style="color: blue;">展望</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">【美元】</strong><strong style="color: blue;">市场</strong><strong style="color: blue;">预计</strong><strong style="color: blue;">本周经济数据</strong><strong style="color: blue;">整体</strong><strong style="color: blue;">偏强</strong><strong style="color: blue;">运行</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">上周,美国方面<span style="color: black;">重点</span>聚集于劳动力市场数据,2月非农就业人口增长27.5万,高于前值的22.9万(从35.3万已下修),此前两个月共向下修正了16.7万人;失业率意外<span style="color: black;">提升</span>至3.9%,高于预期和前值3.7%,刷新2022年1月<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>新高。虽然就业市场温和发展,但似乎<span style="color: black;">已然</span><span style="color: black;">显现</span>了趋弱迹象。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">数据公布后,CME美联储观察预测5月维持利率不变的概率为70%,6月降息概率已升至80.8%,市场<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>预计6月降息或为大概率事件。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本周将<span style="color: black;">颁布</span>2月CPI、PPI、消费者<span style="color: black;">自信心</span>等数据,预计CPI将维持3.1%不变,<span style="color: black;">另外</span>其他数据<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将大概率高于预期及前值,整体呈向好态势。<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>,市场或借此<span style="color: black;">针对</span>后期美联储<span style="color: black;">是不是</span>接近降息来做出判断。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">预计本周行情相对<span style="color: black;">很强</span>,需密切关注即时变化。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/67bnrK1HEsMeQ1Avk06HkEz8C5lePwpCQMERfyRcdt3QKFfcT7ForArYCJpDiaY8do6fMOnUGpFzbe0jibPI5AeA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">美元指数日线图</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">美元指数上周呈现下行走势,周跌幅<span style="color: black;">超过1.1</span>%,最低探至102.34后略有反弹,<span style="color: black;">日前</span><span style="color: black;">涨至102.70。短线</span>观察汇价受到前期102.46<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>的趋势线支撑,探底回升,但<span style="color: black;">日前</span>反弹力度相对较小。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">预计本周初汇价围绕上周低点运行的概率偏高,后期关注数据层面的指引,如数据偏强运行,有望带动美指暂时企稳<span style="color: black;">。</span></span> </p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">支撑位:</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">102.34</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">;阻力位:</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">103.18</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">【人民币】</strong><strong style="color: blue;">后期</strong><strong style="color: blue;">预计</strong><strong style="color: blue;">国内经济</strong><strong style="color: blue;">状态延续修复为主</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">全国两会上周在京开幕,政府工作报告中对今年的预期<span style="color: black;">目的</span>、财政政策、货币政策以及工作任务等作出重要<span style="color: black;">安排</span>。从预期<span style="color: black;">目的</span>来看,2024年GDP<span style="color: black;">实质</span>增速5%<span style="color: black;">上下</span>,失业率5.5%<span style="color: black;">上下</span>,居民消费价格涨幅3%<span style="color: black;">上下</span>,整体预计<span style="color: black;">目的</span>偏向积极。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">上周外贸数据,1~2月以美元计价贸易帐累计<span style="color: black;">颁布</span>,为1251.6亿美元,货物进出口规模创历史同期新高,外贸端实现良好开局;<span style="color: black;">另一</span>2月CPI为0.7%,远高于前值-0.8%,<span style="color: black;">重点</span>受春节刺激,各分项数据均呈大幅飙涨趋势。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>提振经济<span style="color: black;">需要</span>仍是重点,后期政策端<span style="color: black;">能够</span>期待<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>积极<span style="color: black;">原因</span>。预计后期美元兑人民币高位波动仍将是主旋律,<span style="color: black;">这里</span><span style="color: black;">基本</span>上还需关注货币政策端的动态。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/67bnrK1HEsMeQ1Avk06HkEz8C5lePwpCkAibr188IRYdicpLQ6TYmw3ic6lkZm5Eich12sib9XprCWCzmUaKzfAnmbA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">美元兑人民币日线图</span></strong></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">美元兑人民币上周重心略有下移,最低探至7.1798,<span style="color: black;">截止</span>本周一亚洲市场汇价再度缓慢推升,<span style="color: black;">日前</span>涨至7.1910,整体强势<span style="color: black;">情况</span>依旧<span style="color: black;">显著</span>。后期首要还需关注7.20的重要压力位置,此位置被突破则有望进一步延续反弹行情,反之仍将大概率继续维持高位的震荡走势。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">支撑位:</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">7.1798</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">;阻力位:7.</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2000</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/67bnrK1HEsMvXbVIAAsibr2YenI7cVe1plG3ASphaxuEzqD1mVYe4bdNibNDhdUvaiczibgtMslswJ32KCfnOF8YEQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></a></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">【</strong><strong style="color: blue;">欧</strong><strong style="color: blue;">元】</strong><strong style="color: blue;">欧央行利率</strong><strong style="color: blue;">决议</strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">暗示6月有望开启降息</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">上周四欧央行连续第四次按兵不动,符合市场预期,<span style="color: black;">同期</span>欧央行下调了通胀和经济增速预期。拉加德在发布会上<span style="color: black;">暗示</span>,虽然在实现通胀<span style="color: black;">目的</span>方面取得了不错的<span style="color: black;">发展</span>,但<span style="color: black;">日前</span>还<span style="color: black;">无</span>足够的<span style="color: black;">自信心</span>进行降息。<span style="color: black;">针对</span><span style="color: black;">将来</span>降息的时点,市场<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>认为,延后至6月降息的概率较高。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>,欧央行延后降息的预期,<span style="color: black;">一样</span>支撑了欧元,外加美国经济数据整体呈走弱趋势,欧元兑美元呈反弹走势,周涨幅接近1%<span style="color: black;">,8日</span>汇价最高触及1.0981后冲高回落。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>围绕1.0940<span style="color: black;">周边</span>运行,短期看<span style="color: black;">以1.0981~</span>1.1000<span style="color: black;">做为</span>反弹<span style="color: black;">目的</span>的参考,<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>此位置被突破汇价则有可能继续看高一线,反之一旦遇阻回落不排除将跌至1.0883(60日均线处)。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/67bnrK1HEsMeQ1Avk06HkEz8C5lePwpCqViaBPkNcbW3nMGJaicMBsejvGhdFTlaFnw3daicEZiaW6YXmcyaic4Chag/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">欧元兑人民币日线图</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">欧元兑人民币上周呈现震荡上行走势,最高触及7.8785。本周汇价可参考上周高点7.8785,预计<span style="color: black;">这里</span><span style="color: black;">基本</span>上进一步<span style="color: black;">大涨</span>的概率较低,谨防冲高回落走势,下方可参考5日均线支撑位置(7.8495),如此位置被击穿下方则考验7.8200<span style="color: black;">周边</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">支撑位:</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">7.8200</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">;阻力位:</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">7.8785</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">【日元】</strong><strong style="color: blue;">退出</strong><strong style="color: blue;">负利率概率</strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">连续</span>升温</strong><strong style="color: blue;">,</strong><strong style="color: blue;">日元上周</strong><strong style="color: blue;">迎来升值走势</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">本周一日本四季度GDP年化季率终值为0.4%,不及预期的1.</span>0%,但较初值的-0.4%大幅上修,这<span style="color: black;">寓意</span>着日本暂时摆脱了技术性衰退。<span style="color: black;">另外</span>,上周美元兑日元呈现下行走势,周跌幅超<span style="color: black;">过2</span>%,<span style="color: black;">针对</span>日元呈升值走势,<span style="color: black;">重点</span>在于<span style="color: black;">思虑</span>3月(3月19日)利率决议退出负利率的可能性加大,但市场<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>认为,“<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>日本央行3月不退出负利率,4月退出负利率<span style="color: black;">亦</span>几乎为板上钉钉之事。”</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>,<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>本月维持利率不变,届时美元兑日元可能再度呈上涨行情,即日元贬值。本周需要关注日本央行<span style="color: black;">针对</span>货币政策所带来的任何措辞。美元兑日元上周呈大幅度下行走势,<span style="color: black;">日前</span><span style="color: black;">已跌至147.00<span style="color: black;">周边</span></span>,短线受到60日均线支撑(146.80),预计此位置支撑力度较强,继续大幅走弱的概率偏低,<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>本周预计汇价止跌企稳概率<span style="color: black;">很强</span>,上方关注148.00(半年线)。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/67bnrK1HEsMeQ1Avk06HkEz8C5lePwpCwh4puLzb3f7XhlsGUVDGib3l3icE1plPvJZcy3EB0KEtGib8dkuGT694Q/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">日元兑人民币日线图</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">日元兑人民币上周大幅度暴涨,周涨幅达到1.94%。<span style="color: black;">这里</span>前围绕0.0476低位震荡后,突发上行<span style="color: black;">已然</span>涨至0.0490,短期看前期高点(2月1日)0.0491<span style="color: black;">周边</span>预计将存在较强的阻力,汇价再度大幅度<span style="color: black;">大涨</span>的概率较低,一旦遇阻回落汇价有望跌至0.0482<span style="color: black;">周边</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">支撑位</strong><strong style="color: blue;">:</strong><strong style="color: blue;"> <span style="color: black;">0.0</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;">482</strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">;阻力位:0.0</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;">481</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">本周关注焦点</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1、</span></span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">经济数据</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">日期</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">事件</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">前值</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">预测</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">重要性</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3月11日</strong><strong style="color: blue;">(周一)</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">07:30 <span style="color: black;">日本第四季度<span style="color: black;">实质</span>GDP季率</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">-0.1%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">0.3%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3月12日</strong><strong style="color: blue;">(周二)</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">20:30<span style="color: black;">美国2月CPI年率</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">3.1%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">3.1%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★★★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3月13日</strong><strong style="color: blue;">(周三)</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">17:00欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩<span style="color: black;">发布</span>讲话</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3</strong><strong style="color: blue;">月</strong><strong style="color: blue;">14</strong><strong style="color: blue;">日(周四)</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">20:30 <span style="color: black;">美国2月零售<span style="color: black;">营销</span>月率</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">-0.8%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">0.8%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">美国2月PPI年率</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">0.9%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">1.2%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3</strong><strong style="color: blue;">月</strong><strong style="color: blue;">15</strong><strong style="color: blue;">日(周五)</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">09:30<span style="color: black;">中国70个大中城市住宅<span style="color: black;">营销</span>价格报告</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">21:15<span style="color: black;">美国2月工业产出月率</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">-0.1%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">0.0%</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">★★★</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">2、</span></span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">重要事件</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">●美国2月CPI预计维持3.1</span><span style="color: black;">%不变</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本周二<span style="color: black;">颁布</span><span style="color: black;">美国2月CPI,市场<span style="color: black;">广泛</span></span>预计较前值3.1%不变;<span style="color: black;">另外</span>2月核心CPI预计将从3.9%降至3.7%。<span style="color: black;">这次</span>通胀数据<span style="color: black;">针对</span><span style="color: black;">将来</span>美国方面的货币政策调控将起到关键的引导<span style="color: black;">功效</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">●美国2月零售<span style="color: black;">营销</span>预计将</span><span style="color: black;">迎来大幅上涨</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">本周四<span style="color: black;">颁布</span>的2月零售<span style="color: black;">营销</span>月率</span>预计<span style="color: black;">增长0.8%,较上个月-0</span>.8%有望大幅度反弹。<span style="color: black;">一样</span>,核心<span style="color: black;">营销</span>零售<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有望较前值迎来大幅上涨的走势。<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>数据符合预期,将证明整体<span style="color: black;">营销</span>市场<span style="color: black;">已然</span>步入新的向好<span style="color: black;">周期</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">(</span><span style="color: black;">报告<span style="color: black;">公司</span>:<span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">北京汇金天禄<span style="color: black;">危害</span>管理技术有限<span style="color: black;">机构</span></strong></span>,</span><span style="color: black;">本报告未经</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">准许</span>,其他个人/<span style="color: black;">公司</span>严禁引用、复制,否则追究其法律责任。</span><span style="color: black;">报告信息仅供参考,<span style="color: black;">危害</span>自担。</span><span style="color: black;">)</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">广宣(点击<span style="color: black;">照片</span>查看详情)</span></p>
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