诸葛亮说的观其大略是什么意思？
<span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/dKYblz1sPBqXcMGsAibCwR81k1Bve7QgknckT9mU6iaBH0J70UfOam00FKBrWTIVruMZDFeVs63cJpH1kcYK7ukQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span><span style="color: black;">题图由我司AI生成</span><span style="color: black;">诸葛亮说的观其大略是什么意思？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1、</span>观其大略</span><span style="color: black;">有些人有<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">天分</span>，真是很<span style="color: black;">青年</span>的时候就能看出来。</span><span style="color: black;">其实诸葛亮的<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>事迹，<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>都被删掉了。</span><span style="color: black;">《魏略》记载了这么一件事情，当年，诸葛亮在荆州与石广元、徐元直、孟公威<span style="color: black;">一块</span>游学。</span><span style="color: black;">“三人务于精熟，而亮独观其大略。每晨夕，从容抱膝长啸。而谓三人曰：‘卿三人仕进，可至刺史郡守<span style="color: black;">亦</span>。’三人问其所至，亮笑而不言。”</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">便是</span>说，诸葛亮青年时代，和</span><span style="color: black;">石广元、徐元直、孟公威<span style="color: black;">一块</span>学习的时候，其他三个人读书，都要搞的精熟，而<span style="color: black;">仅有</span>诸葛亮是看其中的“大略”。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">而后</span>诸葛亮说这三个人，将来<span style="color: black;">能够</span>做到刺史、郡守的位置。</span><span style="color: black;">三个人问诸葛亮将来能做到什么位置，诸葛亮笑而不答。</span><span style="color: black;">这个历史，我相信<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>人都看到过。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">那样</span>理解成框架大于<span style="color: black;">奋斗</span>，学东西要学到核心思想，这个都<span style="color: black;">无</span>什么错。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>，<span style="color: black;">不足</span>深刻。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">此刻</span><span style="color: black;">青年</span>人，<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>人“转码”，<span style="color: black;">由于</span>码农工资高<span style="color: black;">吗</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>就拿学编程来举个例子。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>人学编程，是<span style="color: black;">这般</span>的，遵循学校老师教的，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>先拿一本很厚的书。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span><span style="color: black;">这般</span>的，像字典<span style="color: black;">那样</span>厚，<span style="color: black;">况且</span>还是上下册：</span><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/dKYblz1sPBqXcMGsAibCwR81k1Bve7Qgkf2bvKSXg0Mg8jQWLoTsSQwEHGzRdZDbFQAQp6I26yhsrg2iavA7QkqQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span><span style="color: black;">拿这一类书，从头看到尾，每一个例子去练习，搞得非常熟。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">那样</span>，你这么学习，将来能达到什么水平呢？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">能够</span>在<span style="color: black;">机构</span>打工，有不少还是大<span style="color: black;">机构</span>。</span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">由于</span>大<span style="color: black;">机构</span>面试的时候，<span style="color: black;">便是</span><span style="color: black;">爱好</span>问这些细枝末节的问题。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">最后</span>，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>做码农，能做到一个中层的技术人员，<span style="color: black;">已然</span>顶天了。</span><span style="color: black;">并不是说这些书<span style="color: black;">欠好</span>，而是这个学习<span style="color: black;">办法</span>是完全错误的。</span><span style="color: black;">我和IT互联网行业<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>老板聊过，<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>最<span style="color: black;">起始</span>都是编码的，非科班的<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有不少。</span><span style="color: black;">这一类老板，小的<span style="color: black;">机构</span>有30-50人，中等的几百人，大的当然<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有上市<span style="color: black;">机构</span>，上万人的<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">那样</span>，<span style="color: black;">她们</span>当年学习编程的时候，是怎么学的呢？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">便是</span></span><span style="color: black;">观其大略</span><span style="color: black;">。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">详细</span><span style="color: black;">来讲</span>，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>先买一本编程书，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>看个大概，基本的东西搞懂了就行了。</span><span style="color: black;">接着，就去找<span style="color: black;">有些</span>刷题网站，刷刷基本的编程题，练练手感。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">而后</span>，怎么办呢？</span><span style="color: black;">就一个一杆枪，直接找个开源的项目，<span style="color: black;">起始</span>做自己的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>，有自己的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>，就<span style="color: black;">起始</span>卖了。</span><span style="color: black;">中间碰到不懂的问题，再去翻翻书，去网上查一查。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>赶上互联网发展的红利，就做起来了。</span><span style="color: black;">就算还是打工的，在<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的层级<span style="color: black;">亦</span>比较高。</span><span style="color: black;">道理很简单，别人是真能拿下一个<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的，<span style="color: black;">能够</span>直接卖钱的。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">为何</span>这个两种学习<span style="color: black;">办法</span>差距这么大呢？</span><span style="color: black;">因为一个是</span><span style="color: black;">码农级</span><span style="color: black;">，一个是</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">制品</span>级</span><span style="color: black;">。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">2、</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>能力</span><span style="color: black;">编程，只是技术，本身并不创造任何价值，人们买你的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>，是<span style="color: black;">由于</span>要满足自己的<span style="color: black;">需要</span>，而不是<span style="color: black;">哪些</span>代码。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span>说网站、论坛、app、小程序，<span style="color: black;">最后</span>是满足业务<span style="color: black;">需要</span>的。</span><span style="color: black;">而这些<span style="color: black;">需要</span>，在书上是<span style="color: black;">基本</span><span style="color: black;">无</span>写的。</span><span style="color: black;">你把书看得再<span style="color: black;">熟练</span>，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>是<span style="color: black;">无</span>用的。</span><span style="color: black;">你就直接上手<span style="color: black;">实质</span>的项目，马上就把别人框架，遇到<span style="color: black;">详细</span>的事情怎么处理，<span style="color: black;">所有</span>学会了。</span><span style="color: black;">那种<span style="color: black;">那样</span>厚的书，<span style="color: black;">最少</span>有80%的东西，你是完全用不到的。</span><span style="color: black;">你搞得再<span style="color: black;">熟练</span>，将来还是会忘掉。</span> <span style="color: black;">写书的人，面向的是所有人，覆盖了所有的场景。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span>说搞手机上的程序、网站、电脑上的程序，什么都写了<span style="color: black;">有些</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">你<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>是做互联网上的东西，只是书上的一小部分。</span><span style="color: black;">就像微软的office软件，功能不可谓不多，你真正能用的，<span style="color: black;">到底</span>有多少呢？</span><span style="color: black;">你就会<span style="color: black;">那样</span>一点操作，就<span style="color: black;">不可</span>写<span style="color: black;">文案</span>了？</span><span style="color: black;">无非<span style="color: black;">便是</span>排版丑一点，操作的时候别扭一点，<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">那样</span>美观<span style="color: black;">罢了</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">重要的是写出好<span style="color: black;">文案</span>，而不是office软件的<span style="color: black;">运用</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">就算你只会编程那种最基本的<span style="color: black;">次序</span>、分支、循环，<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>足以让你做出<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>东西来了。</span><span style="color: black;">关键的是，看书那种学习<span style="color: black;">办法</span>，会让你纠缠于细枝末节。</span><span style="color: black;">你<span style="color: black;">科研</span>了十年，<span style="color: black;">科研</span><span style="color: black;">各样</span>细枝末节，一个<span style="color: black;">制品</span>都没做出来。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">这般</span>的人应该不在<span style="color: black;">少许</span>，最后皓首<span style="color: black;">白头</span>，一事无成。</span><span style="color: black;">而别人搞出了一个又一个<span style="color: black;">制品</span>，<span style="color: black;">最后</span>当上了老板。</span><span style="color: black;">你要早明白这点的话，成就肯定不止<span style="color: black;">此刻</span><span style="color: black;">这般</span>。</span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">科研</span><span style="color: black;">那样</span>多，恐怕最适合的去做一个培训老师。</span><span style="color: black;">诸葛亮到刘备那边，别人一<span style="color: black;">起始</span>，<span style="color: black;">便是</span><span style="color: black;">根据</span>大国宰相的路子走的。</span><span style="color: black;">关于整个体系的运作，是<span style="color: black;">熟练</span>不比的，这才是有用的人才。</span><span style="color: black;">而不是寻章摘句。</span><span style="color: black;">就拿这次人工智能浪潮<span style="color: black;">来讲</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">有些人，就拿php做一个网站，对接一个chatgpt，就赚了好多钱了。</span><span style="color: black;">虽然<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>程序员鄙视php，<span style="color: black;">然则</span>别人<span style="color: black;">便是</span>做<span style="color: black;">制品</span>快啊，赚到钱才是正事。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因此</span>，php程序员才<span style="color: black;">爱好</span>说，php才是世界上最好的语言。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">倘若</span><span style="color: black;">根据</span>学校老师教的那种学习<span style="color: black;">办法</span>，你跑去买一<span style="color: black;">自己</span>工智能的教科书，里面特么全是数学公式。</span><span style="color: black;">你看不懂不说，<span style="color: black;">况且</span></span><span style="color: black;">80%</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">乃至</span></span><span style="color: black;">90%</span><span style="color: black;">的东西，<span style="color: black;">针对</span><span style="color: black;">此刻</span>项目是无效的。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">由于</span>人工智能发展的太快了，传统的人工智能那套理论，<span style="color: black;">不可</span>说完全没用。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">最少</span>是在项目上很少用得着。</span><span style="color: black;">等你把那套学会，黄花菜都凉了三遍了。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">3、</span>待天下有变</span><span style="color: black;">诸葛亮的《隆中对》中说：</span><span style="color: black;">待天下有变。</span><span style="color: black;">机会<span style="color: black;">常常</span><span style="color: black;">便是</span>在天下有变的<span style="color: black;">显现</span>的。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>诸葛亮并<span style="color: black;">无</span>等到，寿命<span style="color: black;">不足</span>长。</span><span style="color: black;">之前，<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>老板是做网站赚到了钱，后来是app和小程序，<span style="color: black;">此刻</span>是人工智能。</span><span style="color: black;">每时每刻，都在变化，你要是读死书，抱着网站时代的想法，最后的结果当然是被淘汰。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>这代人是幸运的，居然等到了人工智能的大爆发。</span><span style="color: black;">这<span style="color: black;">便是</span>天下有变。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">针对</span>这次人工智能浪潮，我<span style="color: black;">亦</span>犯了一个严重的错误。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">这儿</span>不得不说明一下。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">便是</span>现代的人工智能的原理，什么神经网络，Transformer架构，我都清楚。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>在有一点上犯了错误。</span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">便是</span>OpenAI 2020年发布的一篇论文：</span><span style="color: black;">scale laws for neural language models。</span><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/dKYblz1sPBqXcMGsAibCwR81k1Bve7Qgk51ueicajibnriaBLPwymVhWl0dgHHKibRxvYicy8zfiaIfOsK3GN80NhErjQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span><span style="color: black;">这篇论文，我之前就看过，简单的说，<span style="color: black;">她们</span>认为，随着算力和数据的增长，人工智能的能力会大爆发。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>，当时模型的规模<span style="color: black;">已然</span>很大了，再往上扩大，就会很贵。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>大<span style="color: black;">机构</span>都不敢走这条路，<span style="color: black;">况且</span>量变<span style="color: black;">导致</span>质变，不是总是有效的。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span>说，100万个<span style="color: black;">无</span>受过训练的人，还是乌合之众，不可能打得过军队。</span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因此</span>，我并<span style="color: black;">无</span>抱有什么<span style="color: black;">自信心</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">没想到的是，<span style="color: black;">她们</span>真的敢一直投入，直到chatGPT爆火，还真的把这个问题<span style="color: black;">处理</span>了。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">况且</span>还<span style="color: black;">显现</span>了“</span><span style="color: black;">智能涌现</span><span style="color: black;">”，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>说规模大了之后，本来原来<span style="color: black;">无</span>训练的的能力<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">显现</span>了。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">所说</span>的“涌现”，凯文凯利之前就讲过。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span>说昆虫，它们个体<span style="color: black;">常常</span>只做<span style="color: black;">有些</span>固定动作，<span style="color: black;">然则</span>在群体上却表现出很高的智能。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">那样</span>这个个体的规则和群体智能之间的差异，就叫“</span><span style="color: black;">涌现</span><span style="color: black;">”。</span><span style="color: black;">前不久，比尔盖茨和OpenAI的CEO奥特曼做了一次对话，比尔盖茨说，本来<span style="color: black;">亦</span>是<span style="color: black;">始终</span>质疑这个事情的。</span><span style="color: black;">直到他亲眼见到，才相信是真的。</span><span style="color: black;">再说一遍，人工智能不会取代人类，<span style="color: black;">最少</span>当前是<span style="color: black;">这般</span>的。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>，一个不会AI的人会被用AI的人取代。</span><span style="color: black;">要不是抓住人工智能这次机会，恐怕我<span style="color: black;">亦</span>会和<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>房圈的人<span style="color: black;">同样</span>压力大。</span> <span style="color: black;">虽然我的房子没跌，<span style="color: black;">然则</span>压力总是有的。</span><span style="color: black;">抓住了人工智能这次机会，<span style="color: black;">心理</span>就<span style="color: black;">安稳</span><span style="color: black;">非常多</span>。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">此刻</span>几百万的传统互联网项目<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>都不接了，集中精力搞人工智能方向。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">4、</span>结语</span><span style="color: black;">学习，并不是说抱着一本很厚的书，才叫学习。</span><span style="color: black;">正确的<span style="color: black;">办法</span>是，观其大略，<span style="color: black;">而后</span>先干起来再说。</span><span style="color: black;">这个<span style="color: black;">办法</span>，比看书，取得的成就大得多。</span><span style="color: black;">而世界，又是变化的，适应变化才是符合天道的。</span><span style="color: black;">而不是一味抱怨环境。</span><span style="color: black;">上次发了一篇<span style="color: black;">文案</span>后，有人在后台骂说，你特么发了一篇<span style="color: black;">文案</span>就跑了。</span><span style="color: black;">你好歹带一个<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>啊，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>怎么学啊？</span><span style="color: black;">我尝试过写<span style="color: black;">文案</span>，写了几万字了，<span style="color: black;">然则</span><span style="color: black;">发掘</span>这个玩意，写<span style="color: black;">文案</span>真的说不清楚，里面东西太多了。</span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>还真的是有一个课，<span style="color: black;">不外</span>是<span style="color: black;">机构</span>内部培训<span style="color: black;">运用</span>的，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>培训新员工。</span><span style="color: black;">就这个课，我搞了</span><span style="color: black;">3个月</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">才可</span>让<span style="color: black;">大众</span>一看就懂，手稿写了几万字，直接把几十年的发展和这几年的发展总结出来，把你的水平从一无所知，拉到当前的水平。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">此刻</span>开放出来给<span style="color: black;">大众</span>，这<span style="color: black;">便是</span>给<span style="color: black;">大众</span>省力了：</span><span style="color: black;">《深入浅出人工智能（原理与商机）》</span><span style="color: black;">这个课是讲宏观发展、原理和<span style="color: black;">挣钱</span>场景的，只要懂中文就能学会。</span><span style="color: black;">这个不是面向程序员的，不要指望我讲马尔科夫链，<span style="color: black;">要求</span>随机场，Transformer<span style="color: black;">重视</span>力机制。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>会</span><span style="color: black;">教<span style="color: black;">大众</span>手搓一个GPT出来</span><span style="color: black;">。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">此刻</span>上传了一半，光是视频就有3.3个G之多，信息密度非常之大。</span><span style="color: black;">后面的课程<span style="color: black;">亦</span>会<span style="color: black;">持续</span>上传。</span><span style="color: black;">除了课程外，还送几项福利：</span><span style="color: black;">1.后面有</span><span style="color: black;">3次直播课</span><span style="color: black;">，牛哥亲授。</span><span style="color: black;">2.送<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>内部软件的人</span><span style="color: black;">工智能软件练习券</span><span style="color: black;">。</span><span style="color: black;">有配套的AI软件，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>的内部<span style="color: black;">开发</span>用的软件，给<span style="color: black;">大众</span>送</span><span style="color: black;">100万token，100张图</span><span style="color: black;">的额度。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">大众</span>就先<span style="color: black;">不消</span>买高性能的电脑了。</span><span style="color: black;">3.<span style="color: black;">同期</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>会有</span><span style="color: black;">社群陪跑</span><span style="color: black;">，<span style="color: black;">大众</span>碰撞，<span style="color: black;">必定</span>会有火花。</span><span style="color: black;">这个我觉得在外面怎么<span style="color: black;">亦</span>得卖</span><span style="color: black;">1000多块</span><span style="color: black;">。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">然则</span>前期优惠，只卖</span><span style="color: black;">365块</span><span style="color: black;">，后面肯定要涨价的。</span><span style="color: black;">以牛哥的水平，这个课是<span style="color: black;">能够</span>无脑冲的，否则我<span style="color: black;">亦</span>不会做3个月了。</span><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/dKYblz1sPBqXcMGsAibCwR81k1Bve7QgkEwq9MT9pgzOvImBGUwbf3nkYTkaO5gaF0tVlKyzxndHV841ic504NNA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">重视</span>，最好的是<span style="color: black;">选取</span>用电脑观看，<span style="color: black;">选取</span>原画画质。</span><span style="color: black;">虚拟商品，概不退款。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">倘若</span>对你有启发，请点个关注<span style="color: black;">或</span>“在看”吧。</span><span style="color: black;">老读者<span style="color: black;">意见</span>“星标”，<span style="color: black;">无</span>任何互动，系统可能不会在<span style="color: black;">第1</span>时间推送给你</span><span style="color: black;">。</span>你字句如珍珠，我珍藏这份情。 感谢您的精彩评论，为我带来了新的思考角度。
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