f9yx0du 发表于 2024-10-13 18:57:45

Shopify: 亚马逊 “躺到”，独立电商却 “雄起” 了？


    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">文 | 海豚投研</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">北京时间 8 月 7 日晚美股盘前，美国独立电商龙头 Shopify <span style="color: black;">颁布</span>了 2024 年二季度财报，整体来看，支付和订阅业务的核心经营指标都好于预期，其中订阅业务表现更强劲，而夸张的控费则<span style="color: black;">帮忙</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>挤出了大超预期的利润<strong style="color: blue;">，</strong>可谓一份出色的业绩，<span style="color: black;">仔细</span>要点如下：</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">1、</strong>核心经营指标上，本季度<strong style="color: blue;">Shopify 生态的总<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额（GMV）</strong>$672 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 22.2%，增速<span style="color: black;">安稳</span></strong>，<strong style="color: blue;">比预期多出约$15 亿（2.2%）。 完成的总支付金额</strong>为$411 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">比预期高出 11 亿（+2.9%）</strong>，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 29.7%。</strong>Shopify 自有支付<span style="color: black;">途径</span>的渗透率<strong style="color: blue;">环比由 59.5% <span style="color: black;">提高</span>到 61.2%，比预期的 60.8% 稍高。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">表现</span>订阅业务<span style="color: black;">状况</span>的 MRR（月复现收入），本季为$1.69 亿每月，同比增长 21.6%，大幅高于预期的$1.59 亿，是本季财报最超预期的点。</strong>其中<strong style="color: blue;">Plus 商户贡献的 MRR 同比增长了 29%，</strong>非 Plus 商户 MRR 的增速则<span style="color: black;">仅有</span> 18.6%。换言之，<strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务的强劲增长<span style="color: black;">是由于</span> Plus 商户推动的。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">2、</strong>营收层面，<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务本季收入</strong>14.8 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 18.6%，增速稍<span style="color: black;">小于</span> GMV 和 GPV，</strong><span style="color: black;">亦</span>未跑赢市场预期<strong style="color: blue;">。</strong><span style="color: black;">重点</span>是<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务收入的变现率（占 GMV 的比重）同比减少了 7bps 到 2.21%。</strong><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务变现率的下降，是 Plus 商户比重<span style="color: black;">加强</span>后的<span style="color: black;">恰当</span>后果</strong>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务收入则和强劲增长的 MRR 指标一致，收入同比增长 26.8%，比预期高出 5.6%。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">3、</strong>毛利润<span style="color: black;">方向</span>，<strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务毛利率<span style="color: black;">亦</span>环比<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了 1.4pct 到 82.8%，</strong>不仅收入增长更强，叠加毛利率<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，<strong style="color: blue;">毛利润额超预期的幅度扩大到 6.4%。</strong>而商家服务业务则因<strong style="color: blue;">变现率有所下滑</strong>，<strong style="color: blue;">毛利率<span style="color: black;">亦</span>环比略降了 0.3pct。</strong><span style="color: black;">引起</span><strong style="color: blue;">商家服务的毛利润</strong>为$5.79 亿<strong style="color: blue;">，反而稍<span style="color: black;">小于</span>预期 1.4%。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">4、</strong><span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">方向</span>，本季<strong style="color: blue;">Shopify <span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">小于</span>预期的<span style="color: black;">花费</span>支出对利润释放的贡献者非常可观。总经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span>总支出约$8 亿，比市场预期低整整$1 亿</strong>(-11.9%)。其中营销<span style="color: black;">花费</span>比预期少 0.3 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">管理<span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">更加是</span>同比腰斩，仅支出$0.6 亿，仅此一项就比预期低了约$0.7 亿。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">5、</strong>总毛利比预期多出约 0.2 亿，而优异的经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">掌控</span><span style="color: black;">更加是</span>挤出约 1 亿利润。使得本季度<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的核心经营利润环比<span style="color: black;">增多</span>了近 1.4 亿，翻倍<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。<span style="color: black;">机构</span>更关注的自由现金利润上，本季度为 3.3 亿，环比<span style="color: black;">一样</span><span style="color: black;">增多</span>了约 1 亿，比预期多出约 0.9 亿。</p><img src="https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/1d2c7f0b200049569059351f89d91306~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=BU7f73kA4utY1pMjK55dyjrpLNE%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">海豚投研观点：</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">从本季的业绩来看，订阅和商家服务业务各自的经营指标都跑赢预期，虽然因变现率下滑的影响<span style="color: black;">引起</span>营收层面超预期幅度略有缩窄，但在更强劲的订阅业务的带动下营收和毛利指标整体仍是不俗的。在夸张的<span style="color: black;">花费</span>缩减下，挤出的增量利润<span style="color: black;">更加是</span>让 GAAP 口径下经营利润翻倍增长（虽<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有利润额基数低的<span style="color: black;">原由</span>）。但显然，有增长、控<span style="color: black;">花费</span>、放利润的业绩无疑是不俗的。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">而展望下季度，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>在指引 20%~25% <span style="color: black;">上下</span>收入增长（本季为 20.7%）的<span style="color: black;">同期</span>，预期<span style="color: black;">花费</span>支出占收入比重仅为 41%~42%，<span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">小于</span>市场预期的 44.4%。换言之，下季度高增长和提利润率的<span style="color: black;">状况</span>仍会继续。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">估值<span style="color: black;">方向</span>，<span style="color: black;">由于</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>当前高个位数的 P/S 估值，和大几十的 P/E 估值，处于很难客观评判<span style="color: black;">是不是</span>低估、高估的位置。对后续股价走势的判断的确<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>只能从业绩边际变化的趋势来看。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">以下为本季财报<span style="color: black;">仔细</span><span style="color: black;">诠释</span>：</strong></p>
    <h3 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1、</span>订阅、支付经营指标双双跑赢预期</strong></h3>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">按例</span>，先从最反映真实<span style="color: black;">情况</span>的经营指标入手，本季度<strong style="color: blue;">Shopify 生态的总<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额（GMV）</strong>$672 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 22.2%，增速<span style="color: black;">安稳</span></strong>。<span style="color: black;">实质</span> GMV<strong style="color: blue;">比预期多出约$15 亿（2.2%）。</strong></p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/a2d3577054285262462fd6c2cdf80916~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=xXUzrOmSszH8ezyZig5yDPz4NP4%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/e895b6c157d89abf3d50d66d123ea81c~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=rOhqVV6UEAqiASWkc9f40hTCLuY%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">经 Shopify payment 完成的总支付金额</strong>为$411 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">比预期高出 11 亿（+2.9%）</strong>，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 29.7%。</strong>支付金额增速高于<span style="color: black;">营销</span>额增速， 可见经<strong style="color: blue;">Shopify 完成支付占总 GMV 的比重是走高的，环比由 59.5% <span style="color: black;">提高</span>到 61.2%，比预期的 60.8% 稍高</strong>。<span style="color: black;">由于</span> Shopify 能<span style="color: black;">经过</span>支付获取<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>的收入，<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>支付渗透率的走高有利于<span style="color: black;">机构</span>商家服务收入的增长。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/942ff486d050aac6ef98becd0427c953~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=%2FokrdplK9byxnXrrER4PAupM94g%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">表现</span>订阅业务<span style="color: black;">状况</span>的 MRR（月复现收入）指标，本季为$1.69 亿每月，同比增长 21.6%。</strong>(大致可理解为 Shopify 从商家处每月收取的订阅费达 1.69 亿)，<strong style="color: blue;">大幅高于预期的$1.59 亿。</strong><span style="color: black;">能够</span>说，<strong style="color: blue;">订阅收入是本季业务最超预期的点。</strong>其中<strong style="color: blue;">Plus 商户贡献的 MRR 同比增长了 29%，</strong>而非 Plus 商户 MRR 的增速则<span style="color: black;">仅有</span> 18.6%，跑输整体增长。换言之，<strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务的强劲增长<span style="color: black;">是由于</span> Plus 商户推动的。</strong></p>
    <h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2、</span>变现率略降稍稍拖累商家服务收入，订阅服务更加强劲</strong></h2>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">营收层面，<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务本季收入</strong>14.8 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">同比增长 18.6%，增速并未跑赢 GMV 和 GPV 的增速，</strong>相比市场预期<span style="color: black;">亦</span>没<span style="color: black;">显著</span>跑赢<strong style="color: blue;">。</strong><span style="color: black;">背面</span><span style="color: black;">原由</span>是<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务收入的变现率（占 GMV 的比重）同比是减少了 7bps 到 2.21%。</strong>结合 Plus 商户 MRR 跑赢整体的增长，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为<strong style="color: blue;">商家服务变现率的下降，是溢价能力更强的大型商户比重<span style="color: black;">加强</span>后的<span style="color: black;">恰当</span>后果</strong>。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">而<strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务收入的趋势和 MRR 指标是紧密一致的，</strong>本季<strong style="color: blue;">收入同比增长 26.8%，比预期高出 5.6%。营收<span style="color: black;">方向</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>是订阅收入的表现更为强劲。</strong></p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/7f2101484378092238d9ce0db5ce14f9~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=WYDUqpfYMW1qMpIJGlR5vwmP%2BWU%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/74195bea258e8a563373ef193fab8660~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=lNaxWi4UojmM24NZFY%2FwFrfb5H8%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/427c95ee169b139e2da4ca7bee1e9c81~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=YDMF%2B4xnbr6eOp8PxL12GaLZAD8%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">重点</span>归功于强劲的订阅收入，本季 Shopify 的总收入为 20.45 亿，同比增长 20.7%，比预期稍高 1.7%。</p>
    <h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">3、</span>商户服务毛利略降，订阅服务毛利<span style="color: black;">提高</span></strong></h2>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">毛利润<span style="color: black;">方向</span>，<strong style="color: blue;">订阅服务</strong>不仅收入增长高于预期，<strong style="color: blue;">毛利率<span style="color: black;">亦</span>环比<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了 1.4pct 到 82.8%，</strong>经利润率<span style="color: black;">提高</span>的放大后，<strong style="color: blue;">毛利润额超预期的幅度扩大到 6.4%。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">相比之下，<strong style="color: blue;">因</strong>商家服务业务的<strong style="color: blue;">变现率同环比都是下滑的</strong>，<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span><strong style="color: blue;">商家服务的毛利率本季环比略降了 0.3pct。</strong><span style="color: black;">因此呢</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">引起</span><strong style="color: blue;">商家服务的毛利润</strong>为$5.79 亿<strong style="color: blue;">，反而稍<span style="color: black;">小于</span>预期 1.4%。</strong></p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/cd50507e40b50f02a5f517ecaa52a4b8~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=iDmUdlnGxXu2RyT4OO082rYM8pw%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/f40222adab1f21114969392f5f57ce8e~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=n4V3ErFNvuXTMmjD%2Fm2s3Jh2HL4%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">加重两项业务，<strong style="color: blue;">总毛利润</strong>仍是高于预期 2.1%，近<strong style="color: blue;">$10.5 亿比预期多出约$0.2 亿。同比增长 25.1%，仍是跑赢总收入 20.7% 的增速。</strong></p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/c402677c84af78583682b22b23362128~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=LuZ1ySrMgaNh5n3Y0HNgI%2FAcS58%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">4、</span>猛砍管理支出，增量利润最大功臣</strong></h2>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">方向</span>，本季<strong style="color: blue;">Shopify <span style="color: black;">显著</span><span style="color: black;">小于</span>预期的<span style="color: black;">花费</span>支出对利润释放的贡献者更加可观。</strong><span style="color: black;">详细</span>来看<strong style="color: blue;">，本季经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span>总支出约$8 亿，比市场预期整整少了约$1 亿</strong>(-11.9%)。四项经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span>都比预期要少，其中营销<span style="color: black;">花费</span>比预期少 0.3 亿，<strong style="color: blue;">管理<span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">更加是</span>同比不止腰斩，仅为 0.6 亿，比预期整整少了约 0.7 亿。</strong>即便不看预期差<strong style="color: blue;">，四项经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span>占收入的比重<span style="color: black;">亦</span>都是环比下降的。</strong></p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">不外</span>业绩披露中并未解释<span style="color: black;">为么</span>管理<span style="color: black;">花费</span>回断崖下降，可关注<span style="color: black;">tel</span>会中<span style="color: black;">有没有</span>解释。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/294941bae9c6075ec58f9ccd6bc5f0fc~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=QEHIDofkzCdQJGW44K0r4cxU7LU%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/54a4b291edb523ca688547c7dd4add01~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=McRI6yQDqXvhy%2BHE1J9tW%2FN%2B58Q%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
    <h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">5、</span>增收控费下，经营利润翻倍<span style="color: black;">增多</span></strong></h2>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">因为</span>比预期强劲的订阅收入，<span style="color: black;">引起</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>本季总毛利比预期多出约 0.2 亿，而<span style="color: black;">经过</span>经营<span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">掌控</span><span style="color: black;">更加是</span>比预期多挤出约 1 亿利润。<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>，本季度<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的核心经营利润环比<span style="color: black;">增多</span>了近 1.4 亿，环比翻倍。</p>
    <p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">而<span style="color: black;">机构</span>更关注的自由现金利润上，本季度为 3.3 亿环比上季度<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">增多</span>了约 1 亿，比市场预期的 2.45 亿<span style="color: black;">亦</span>高出约 0.9 亿，虽然超预期幅度不及 GAAP 经营利润，但无疑<span style="color: black;">亦</span>是<span style="color: black;">明显</span>跑赢预期的。</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/fa63b6d428ec7ff8d963326a92ea241a~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=eh8Gv%2B5OLGOn2eyn4o463W29%2BLs%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/cd7b1f1668a5280aef74dae859bfd207~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1729338667&amp;x-signature=ko%2FF%2Befc3PVOMhTKig%2B%2FC5qomOY%3D" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">




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